Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (88708)	7/22/2022 10:32:36 AM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 95487

Common sense tells me I am wrong to think that. But humility leads me to admit I have been wrong all too often. Let me help. I've never been wrong in my life! What's the question!!?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (88708)	7/22/2022 11:22:09 AM
From: Rarebird	2 Recommendations Recommended By Return to Sender Sam Respond to of 95487

I think the market is in a sweet spot here between the end of the bond bear (and interest rate bear) and the beginning of the earnings and employment bear. Earnings have come in fine so far. BAC, AXP, C and JPM say the consumer remains strong. AXP reported this morning and they had strong beats on the top and bottom line. The 10 year bond is on the verge of starting a new bull market, which would be very supportive for equities. I'm looking at SPX $4330-$4350 before labor Day and then the next leg down to about $3500, the 50% retracement between SPX $4800 and SPX $2200 in the fall. Economy is headed to recession. Some say we are in recession already. That would be strange given consumer spending and monthly employment numbers, which I admit is a lagging indicator. Key is Fed. This was a Fed induced bear to squash inflation. Recent data shows that inflation is beginning to fall substantially. I expect dramatic declines in inflation over the next few months. Peak inflation is good for bonds and stocks if the economy doesn't fall into deflation. Getting the Fed to pause and cut rates is key. Look at the bond market. The 10 year is at 2.78% and the two year is at 2.96%. I think the Fed is done at September meeting, if not sooner. I'm only bullish till Labor Day. Then bearish for a couple of months. Then we will see how aggressive the Fed gets into lowering rates while economy is in the crapper. Bull markets are born in the darkness of the night where things cannot get any worse and the data becomes less worse.