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To: uu who wrote (9662)	2/10/1998 5:29:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Addi: Re: I think anyone who bought AMAT expected the drop in orders for the next quarter You'd be surprised! All I got for my bearishness was analogies my people saying how bad 1996 and 1997 were yet how relatively well the semi-equips did. (post summer 1996) No one wants to believe that the sector will go down. This is typical human psychology since the stock prices have come down from their highs so much and we've had a nice small rally here. I don't think the order drop will last just for the next quarter. It's going to be over the next 2 quarters at least. I've mentioned this before but there is a herd instinct in ordering cap. equip. When 1 stops all will soon stop. Yes the DRAM cos. will suffer cp. to their competitors. But they have no cash, no credit lines and (for Japan) can't afford the big losses any more. So suffer they must. Basically it's dangerous investing in front-end companies now. One needs the BTB to trend up before the stocks in that sector will trend up. Right now it's down below 1.0 and trending down. Not a good omen for the i/t for those stocks. If the sector rises tomorrow it'll go down shortly afterwards...