Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (45545)	7/29/2022 1:44:46 PM
From: rzborusa	Respond to of 72232

could be that there was too much inventory of Intel notebooks in the channel, then the realization came that it's too much inventory going into recession and sales tanked while this inventory is being sold off... But same could apply to AMD. I'm guessing / gambling sales to China hawe not been fully accounted for, along with XLNX and Pesando. Maybe I'm reaching, shrug .......... Lisa and CC are not about to take their foot off, because they hawe the goods that will command market share. imo

To: Joe NYC who wrote (45545)	7/29/2022 2:15:30 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 72232

There is another concern I have: When companies wake up to a correction like this, they often try to take the pounding in one qtr, so the narrative is we are bottoming now, and growth is coming shortly. I think Intel is doing that a bit with hits they are taking on the SR ramp expenses, and how they are accounting for inventory held (there were some comments about that but I didn't follow exactly what they were doing, this is in regards to product that wasn't fully "qualified"). So the depressed sales and GMs this last qtr are partly setting up to make Q3 look better than Q3 would actually be, sans the games. They may be doing somewhat the same on the client side, deciding to accumulate inventory and keep it out of the channel for now. They did claim the sell through by their partners was currently running higher than what the OEMs are buying from Intel, so they are burning down their own inventory. But the wacking of cap ex by $4B, while claiming they would still hit their prior cash flow revision and the $10B down in FY22 forecast says things are dire for them. If the PC TAM is really down by 10%, and I'm assuming that is PC CPU only TAM, since Intel doesn't have much in the dGPU on client side yet, then that is pretty significant, because Q1 wasn't down much so the pain is in Q2-Q4. Intel would nominally have about 27B in those three qtrs, so nearly $3B must leave. Or course they took half that themselves in Q2. With sales forecast about the same for Q3, then the full 3B TAM hit could come only from Intel's hide in just Q2 and Q3 at that rate. Maybe AMD is fine??

To: Joe NYC who wrote (45545)

8/2/2022 2:47:57 AM

From: Vattila

Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 72232

AMD 2022-Q2 EPS Contest (non-GAAP)

User	EPS	Revenue	Q3 Outlook
gvatty	$1.07	$6.65B	$7.10B
Joe NYC	$1.20	$6.70B	$6.90B
Kelvin C.P. Wang	$1.35	$6.90B	$7.50B
neolib	$1.13	$6.80B	$7.25B
Pravin Kamdar	$1.15	$6.75B	$7.00B
rzborusa	$1.31	$7.03B	$7.48B
Vattila	$1.10	$6.70B	$7.20B
Zacks Estimate	$1.03	$6.52B	$6.84B

Updated with Joe's entry — positive on the quarter, but slightly pessimistic on the outlook.

Last call for participation! Post your numbers to participate!

Background Information

Note that the Q1 results and outlook for Q2 included contributions from the Xilinx acquisition, as will all numbers for Q2 and beyond. Update your models if you haven't already done so.

AMD's Q2 outlook: $6.50B ± 0.20B revenue
Analyst consensus/whisper: $1.03/$1.09 EPS

Q1 results and scoreboards

Message #45028