To: jim kelley who wrote (29550 ) 2/10/1998 7:25:00 PM From: Mohan Marette Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Compaq And Dell Are Our Top Picks For '98- Says Cowen & COÿ For personal use only. Jim & thread: I am taking this to the bank,you? (May be I can get a loan to buy a bit more !). As far as I know Cowen &Co does have some credibility when it comes to technology and Health Care issues. What do you all think?We reiterate our strong buy ratings on Compaq (CPQ $58) and Dell (DELL $90). They should continue to benefit from consolidation dynamics in the PC industry, based on their global branding strength and superior logistics. "Cheap PCs" will likely hasten consolidation, and lower component costs should benefit near-term margins for the best positioned players. Channel inventories are in far better shape exiting 1997 than 1996. And CPQ and DELL play increasingly as share-gainers in the much larger computer systems arena, not just PCs. Asian challenges appear manageable. The stocks are attractively valued, selling below their three-year growth rates of 30%+ for DELL and 20%+ for CPQ on C98-99E earnings.ÿ "PC industry" growth over the next 3 years is likely to be moderate - we assume high single-digit revenue growth, double-digit unit growth. In the North American corporate arena, this is not inconsistent with our recent surveys that suggest 8-9%/annum 3-5 year annual dollar budget growth. The top-tier players, nonetheless, are positioned to grow strongly: unit market share for CPQ, DELL and Hewlett-Packard (HWP $65)ÿ combined grew from 18.7% in 96 to estimated 24% in 97. Based on global brand strength and superior execution logistics, we expect these combined shares to build to 30-31% this year and to 40-45% by 2000.ÿ - Richard Chu, 1/19ÿ Cowen & Co. makes a market in DELL. ÿ