To: TobagoJack who wrote (190680 ) 8/7/2022 10:46:38 AM From: carranza2 1 RecommendationRecommended By Pogeu Mahone
Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217774 We need to remember Deng’s “One China, two systems” promises, which made a lot of sense. Though very few realize it, the promise applied to both Hong Kong and Taiwan. And it worked as trade between Taiwan and the PRC skyrocketed. You’ll find old videos of the previous Taiwanese President and Xi warmly shaking hands. dengxiaopingworks.wordpress.com All very good for trade, world peace, stability, good will, etc.dengxiaopingworks.wordpress.com But after Deng’s demise, his reasonable, cautious approach went by the wayside. Xi has made a major strategic blunder, his alleged expertise at Go notwithstanding. The Taiwanese have been keen observers of how Deng’s approach has been dismantled in Hong Kong. It has led directly to the upsurge in Taiwanese desires for democracy, independence, etc. They do not want “one China, two systems” in the style adopted by Xi for Hong Kong. This of course leads not to loosening Deng-style, but to more tightening Xi-style. Moreover, because of the history, the Taiwanese fear that unlike Hong Kong citizens, they will be treated much more harshly. And the cycle becomes circular, more demands for independence, the decline of the KMT, etc. leading inevitably to more aggressive language, live fire drills, possibly a not-good war, invasion, etc. In my view, Deng had it right. Xi is an old style autocrat, a wolf in sheep’s clothing. I think Xi has tightened his grip on HK deliberately because that’s what dictators do, and perhaps was aware how his abandonment of Deng’s style would affect Taiwan. He also may be calculating that the US is weak and unable to counter what he may do in response to his abandonment of Deng’s loose policies. All of this is hugely dangerous, full of pitfalls. Deng’s approach was, in my view, the wiser way. And, of course, Xi has a massive ego, and he definitely wants history to record that he got Taiwan into the fold, whatever it takes. But he’s no youngster, so he has to act decisively now rather than let Deng’s long term plan evolve over time. He has been aided by inept US pols. Hacks like Pelosi have no business meddling in this dangerous milieu. These thoughts are partially inspired by this 2019 piece in the LSE’s website.blogs.lse.ac.uk