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Biotech / Medical : 2022 Biotech Charity Contest -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: technetium who wrote (148)	8/10/2022 2:36:37 PM
From: A.J. Mullen	Respond to of 267

My climb up the ladder was helped by having two stocks in last week's top five. Currently I have another pick scheduled for the top 5. NVTA is currently up 80% on the day. Unfortunately that's not going to make much impact on my standing because it's still down more than 70% on the year. It had dropped more than 90% from its all time high in late 2020 Invitae, NVTA, is on fire today – up more than 80% - but that’s after slumping more 90% from it’s all-time high in 2020. They had their earnings call yesterday – better than expected, but they still only have 5 x their current quarterly burn rate. Their model was go-for broke expansion, increase sales with tests cheaper than cost, and force the costs down retrospectively helped by the larger scale. In the last couple of years, what had seemed a relentless decline in costs seemed to falter. With rising interest rates, the market lost patience. Management announced they got it, that they were drawing in their horns and reducing burn. They claimed they could extend their runway until 2024. A couple of weeks ago the CEO was replaced by the COO, their international footprint decreased, and 1 000 staff laid-off – including 700 in San Francisco. I read the short interest was 25%. Presumably the results have been taken to mean the company is moving better.

To: technetium who wrote (148)

8/14/2022 1:27:59 PM

From: technetium

1 Recommendation

Recommended By
BulbaMan

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 267

Not meaning to jinx this, but this will be the third straight week for good news. The NASDAQ composite showed a 3% gain for the week and the biotech indices were also up by 1% to 1.7%. But our contestants clearly are savvy investors in that both the median and average portfolio turned in improvements of about +4.6% for the week. In fact only a single portfolio lost ground for the past week.(Pay no attention to all that red ink in the YTD status.)

As you might think, a large fraction of the portfolios’ individual holdings were up for the week.The top five winners returned better than 47%, and the big winner, NVTA, popped more than 139%, However looks might be deceiving, in that the big winners started the week very much underwater for the year. For example even after NVTA’s big showing for the week, it was still a -34% loss for the year. It’s not until the 6th placed stock, WVE, was able to parlay its weekly gain of +47% into pushing into the black for the year at +11%. In many cases the movement, positive and negative, apparently was based on whether, and how much, a recent quarterly earnings report exceeded analysts’ expectations.

There was not that much action in the ordering of the top 10 YTD portfolios in comparison to last week’s. Still, congratulations to ROCKY9, returning from a short 3 week absence.

		Report Time Ranges
			From	To
		Recent	7/29/22	8/12/2022
		YTD	12/31/21	8/12/2022
Index Performance
			Symbol	Recent	YTD
			^IXIC	3.08%	-16.60%
			^NBI	1.01%	-10.94%
			^SPSIBI	1.68%	-16.12%
Share Performance
Recent				YTD
Top 5		Bottom 5		Top 5		Bottom 5
NVTA	133.478%	OTIC	-75.664%	OPTN	132.10%	GNCA	-99.05%
AMRS	98.421%	KZIA	-48.760%	CBIO	110.07%	VLON	-92.91%
AQST	96.591%	MACK	-14.735%	ALDX	86.75%	PTE	-90.60%
ASLN	60.079%	LRMR	-14.525%	FENC	57.73%	PRQR	-89.26%
TOMDF	47.196%	SYNH	-14.127%	LQDA	49.90%	AYLA	-84.14%
			Top 10 Portfolio YTD		YTD(Portfolio - SPSIBI)	Rec	Rec(Port. - SPSIBI)
			DIEGOSAN	6.60%	22.72%	2.703%	1.024%
			BRENDAN_49	-3.96%	12.16%	3.332%	1.653%
			DEW DILIGENCE	-4.07%	12.05%	3.752%	2.074%
			TECHNETIUM	-9.62%	6.50%	6.901%	5.222%
			GENEGURU	-11.14%	4.98%	7.826%	6.148%
			A.J. MULLEN	-15.69%	0.43%	4.162%	2.483%
			JACK HARTMANN	-17.27%	-1.15%	3.970%	2.291%
			BULBAMAN	-17.28%	-1.16%	6.642%	4.963%
			BIOSCIENTISTSA	-17.32%	-1.19%	5.814%	4.135%
			ROCKY9	-20.87%	-4.75%	7.111%	5.433%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	Avg Recent	Avg YTD	Median Recent		Median YTD
	$3,235	-27.15%	ETHAN H	$3,176	RKRW	-30.40%
	4.75%	-27.15%	POMPONIUS	4.556%	RKRW	-30.40%