Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8367)	2/10/1998 8:36:00 PM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Ramsey & Limtex: to expatiate on some earlier thoughts. QC's business portfolio is comprised of Omnitracs, license & royalties, ASICs, infrastructure, handsets, Eudora and, for lack of a better term, a venture capital portfolio (i.e. Globalstar & start-up system operators). I stand by my comment of a $500bb value for Omnitracs and my $180mm value for Globalstar (sorry Valueman, but I'm reading the partnership documented differently from you). In the panic over Korea, people seem to be missing that QC royalty stream extends years into the future and will shortly be derived from more than 38 countries. Yes, Korea came up first. Yes, Korea's domestic market was very important to QC's P&L during FY97. But as 1998 progresses it will be about the U.S. (Sprint, PrimeCo and all the 800MHZ carriers), Japan, Canada and a plethora of other countries. Try this exercise. Create a spreadsheet with all the geographies with current, or immediately pending, CDMA networks. Then assume a baseline penetration rate--say 1% of the covered pops--over a twelve month period. Add up the incremental subsribers. This will help you understand how the royalty and revenue dynamic will change over the next twelve months. Harvey White noted on the Thursday call that "most of the Japanese" have selected QC's chipset for their soon-to-be announced handsets. Now tell me, isn't the population of Japan a little bigger than that of South Korea? In the hysteria, people are making it sound like QC's business is forever dependent on one little Asia country. However, as I said before, chipset sales will be flat quarter-over-quarter and total revenues will be flat to up slightly from December's $785mm level--despite the Korean setback, this is NOT a meltdown. The infrastructure business is building backlog, primarily in wireless local loop. Chilisat is moving along nicely (did we forget that QC is building out a national PCS system in Chile?). People also seem to have forgotten about Globalstar. QC is building the terrestrial gateways plus subscriber equipment. It's amazing that QC is the technological lynchpin for Globalstar, yet its marketcap is barely double that of GSTRF. Oh well, Globalstar isn't being held accountable for quarterly earnings yet. What's the point? The stock may trade lower, or it may recover directly, or it may go nowhere for a while. So what? The economic underpinnings have developed substantial inertia. Korean royalties are a component of, but certainly not the key to, the company's future. Understand what you own; understand why you own it. Good luck.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8367)	2/10/1998 9:21:00 PM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

What a contrast! At the QCOM annual meeting today and the luncheon afterwards, information and good will were passed around to all, new friendships were formed and many of us learned there are indeed human beings at the other end of our computers. And yet this afternoon...this thread has turned into a mud slinging free for all. Seems a lot of the nice folks were eating lunch together. Candlestick, mellow out. Any information you may have that has merit is discounted when you throw insults around. If you're right in the short run, great...you'll make money. If the rest of us long term investors are right, we'll make money. O.K.? Nuff said. I would like to personally thank Ramsey for setting up a wonderful luncheon after the meeting and organizing a forum for all of us to share our thoughts and ideas. It was a wonderful idea. And Craxton, you can buy me a beer when I come up to your neck of the woods ; ) And all of our hearts and prayers are with you Maurice and your son with the challenges ahead. Godspeed. Diamond H (That tall blond guy at the end of the table)