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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (5051)8/9/2022 4:30:08 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Respond to of 10687
 
You don't need to sell me on the idea that USD will eventually relinquish most of its value. Our debate is a matter of timing.

Here's the picture - IF we are headed for a normal recession, then after it is fully priced in (read the Fed pivot schedule is firmed up and not subject of debate), then and only then USD will fall. I suspect that will be in Q4.

If on the other hand the prevailing view becomes that the Fed will keep raising rates till inflation *stays down* as the Fed itself has claimed to do, then USD will continue to rise. And on top of that there is a tail risk of a date with 2008, which will make USD really shoot up.

In conclusion - you and I may agree on the very long term picture, but we disagree on the short term path to get there.

EDIT - Here's another perspective on the USD chart. We're not the only ones debating this issue.



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