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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (14025)	2/10/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

Tommaso, Yeah, I think it was SATURDAY a week ago (Jan 31st), after getting a 5% sell signal for MONDAY, I gave the 5% VIX sell signal just as I said in my last post... although I think I may have given the impression it was for yestday... it was for a week ago yesterday! And the DOW was at 8,100. Then I said the DOW should trade at 7,600-7,700 based on that sell. So I stand by the forecast... although it looks like we may have that crash UPWARD. With a breakthrough - 9,600 minimum With no breakthrough - 7,700 maximum And I expect one or the other to occur within the next 2 months! Bill

To: Tommaso who wrote (14025)	2/11/1998 11:34:00 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Agreed, Tommaso. The TA guys seemed to have been whipsawed a lot lately. I think cash is best right now, but can't resist the temptation to play a little. New high on the DOW doesn't tell me we are necessarily going higher -- though, I know that this is important to some. I think TA can be useful in picking bottoms, but haven't had much luck in picking more than short term "local" tops. Admittedly, I'm not as well-versed in it -- I just haven't seen a number of good consistent calls on the top side -- there I'd rather stick with fundamentals. Trying to decide whether to close a CLX short. I shorted it because I wanted one that would move with the market but not entail a lot of risk to the upside.

To: Tommaso who wrote (14025)	2/11/1998 9:28:00 PM
From: Liatris Spicata	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Thommaso- <<and--perhaps most significantly--dividend yield>> I suspect thee is missing the boat on dividend yield. If investors choose to take more of their gains in the form of capital gains and less in income, the yield will suffer but the total return on investment may remain high. Investors are making this choice in part because of tax laws and, probably, in part because of a secular change in attitude. Furthermore, significant wealth is being created by companies with an insatiable demand for capital- tech and biotech figure prominently here- further reducing the attractiveness of dividend. Just for example, until 2-3(?) years ago Intel paid no dividend- I suspect 30 years ago it would have been unheard of for a company of Intel's stature not to pay a dividend. Even today their dividend is paltry. It's not your grandfather's market or economy anymore! Regards, Larry