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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Charlie Tuna who wrote (6421)2/10/1998 10:35:00 PM
From: Hippieslayer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11555
 
I knew something smelled "fishy" when you said you were selling! :-)



To: Charlie Tuna who wrote (6421)2/11/1998 1:58:00 AM
From: Rob S.  Respond to of 11555
 
I think you are right that Lehman's comments on where IDTI sees the C6 going is what brought some excitement into the stock. Len and Brian realy didn't say, judging from Lehman's report, anything that different about the expectations for the C6 from what they have said in the past. What is different from Len's and Brian's statements of the past that I am aware of is not the "we are gonna make 100s of thoudsands of parts soon" statement but the "we ARE making C6s at 100,000 parts/month rate" (my words of course). Even simple minded people like myself can see that the ramp is starting to deliver as promised. No they are not going to bury Intel in parts anytime soon, but this is a significant confirmation of the plan to be a significant supplier for Pentium class chips. (I wish we could start calling it by something other than Intels namesake).

Before we go counting profits, remember that IDTI plans to spend something like another $125 million on capx to expand the oregon fab. That will be amatorized but it will eat into the balance sheet. Some of the expense of the ramp will have to be expensed immediately. All-in-all, as long as the costs per wafer stay were they are or go down somewhat further (as expected) and the yields continue to improve (as IDT has demonstrated they can do), then they are creating a mint to print money (and we thought they were in the semi business!).



To: Charlie Tuna who wrote (6421)2/11/1998 2:07:00 AM
From: flickerful  Respond to of 11555
 
charlie.....

i agree the lehman report has enough speculative fuel
to account for increased, if not additional interest in their
camp...they emphasize, more than once, that despite short
term concerns, their long range estimates may be conservative.
well, looking at their sequential forecasts, relative to what those
represent per share, i would have to agree. assuming that any of
it has any validity at all, of course, their price target seems a rather
convenient lowball, doesn't it....

regards,
randy

ps
nice to see you charlie...



To: Charlie Tuna who wrote (6421)2/11/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11555
 
Just speculating here but say IDTI adds 50c to the estimates for fiscal year March '99 of 61c. That gets earnings to 1.11 and growth something like 40%. Figuring a multiple PEG of 22x1.4 = 31. Then 31 X 1.11 = 34. We could get even more speculative and figure a stock split and an even higher multiple and higher earnings but that gets way too out of line with what we know now. From 14 to 34 is not a bad number to hope for.