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To: shane forbes who wrote (9691)	2/11/1998 1:42:00 AM
From: SMALL FRY	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Shane, *OT*AMAT I noted with interest your earlier comments about shorting semi-equips... I haven't been on this thread long but I've learned to spot the ones with enough "smarts" to do analytical researches and actually apply them. I believe you are one of those... so I'll state the obvious here, if you want to short AMAT... I suggest visit the thread and filter the BS out. I'm long AMAT and have been following it... I'm certainly uncertain of the direction it's going. As you know DRAM equip is only a segment of their business.... Here's their newer NEWS: February 11, 1998 Applied Materials Beats Estimates, But Asian Crisis Impacts Orders By DEAN TAKAHASHI Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Applied Materials Inc. beat analysts' expectations for fiscal first-quarter earnings, but the semiconductor-equipment maker also warned that orders were disappointing due to weakness among memory-chip makers in Asia. The Santa Clara, Calif., company said net income for the fiscal period ended Jan. 25 climbed sharply to $228.9 million from $29.6 million a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share, or net income divided by common shares outstanding plus potential common shares from securities such as options, rose to 60 cents from eight cents; basic earnings per share, or net divided by common shares outstanding, increased to 62 cents from eight cents. Revenue rose 57% to $1.31 billion from $835.8 million a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, Applied said its earnings rose to $197.8 million, or 52 cents a share diluted, compared with $89.1 million, or 24 cents a share, a year earlier. That figure was two cents better than analysts' per-share consensus of 50 cents a share, according to First Call. Applied's results reflect its ability to pick up market share at the expense of other makers of chip-production equipment. But the company also disclosed that new orders were lower than expected, because chip makers in Japan and South Korea have become cautious about investing in new factories. Applied said first-quarter orders were $1.29 billion, up 43% from the year-earlier period but down 6% from the fourth period. James Morgan, chief executive officer, said the order rate means operating results will be "less favorable" than expected for the 1998 fiscal year. "The Japanese haven't taken advantage of the weakness in Korea to invest ahead" of their competitors there, Mr. Morgan said. "Because of the uncertainty, we're being cautious. We always drive with one foot on the accelerator and one foot on the brakes." Applied's shares had risen before the company's after-market earnings release, partly on expectations that it might disclose positive signs from Asia. In Nasdaq Stock Market trading, its shares rose $1.25 to $36. Despite the order warning, the stock rose in after-hours trading to $36.375, according to Instinet Inc. Sue Billat, analyst at BancAmerica Robertson Stephens & Co., said Applied beat her estimate of 51 cents a share but she expects to cut her 48-cent estimate for the fiscal second quarter. "In the short term, there is a lot of uncertainty," Ms. Billat said. "Given the poor industry conditions, Applied is well positioned to take advantage of the business out there. But overall, I think [industrywide] revenues in 1998 will be below last year's." Mr. Morgan said that one major Korean customer canceled an order for equipment because it is delaying a factory in the United Kingdom. Across the board, makers of dynamic random-access memory chips, or DRAMs, have been plagued by excess capacity and falling prices for their chips, which are used in personal computers and a wide range of other electronic equipment. As a result of the weak DRAM prices and Asian financial problems, analysts such as Dataquest Inc. predict an anemic 1.8% growth for the equipment industry in 1998. But Applied's first-quarter revenue was up dramatically, in part because the company is capturing larger shares of markets such as semiconductor etching and polishing equipment. In addition, the company is getting more revenue from acquisitions made in the past year. Applied said that order growth was strongest in North America, followed by Taiwan and Europe. Return to top of page Copyright c 1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.