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Biotech / Medical : Biomatrix (BXM) Looking Great -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James B. Barnes who wrote (379)	2/11/1998 7:47:00 PM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 569

James - << do you think we'll see extra sales in the past quarter to initially fill the pharmacy inventories? >> My dumb 2 cents..... The way the past quarter worked was as follows: BIOX: Uh, How much do you want to fill your pipeline? AHP: Uh, I don't know, say $5.0 mil. Anaylsis: Did AHP know how much to order? Not really. Which way would they have erred? Without doubt - on the side of having TOOO MUCH. Why? You NEVER want to be short on a product launch. Said another way .... AHP took on Inventory. Whether they "resold" their inventory to a doctor or pharmacy right now - I am guessing - is irrelevant. However, you do raise a good - and very real - point. Imagine - Synvisc got hot to trot ..... Doctors did not want to carry .... but want fast turnaround with their patients (fear they'll go to some other doctor) The store with inventory ... would ... over time .... get the call from the doctor. And - the profit margin - to the store IS fat i.e. $100 big ones. Think of the doctor as GM and the pharmacy as a supplier. Lastly , This scenario ONLY makes sense when (1) Synvisc is hot (2) there is doctor competition and (3) most important, competition amoung pharmacies in a local area. Remember ... my very dumb - 2 cents. Regards, John