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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (88966)	9/9/2022 1:01:29 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By Return to Sender Respond to of 95427

Hi RtS, I have begun buying a small position in INTC (admittedly too early). AMD has earned some market share with TSMC's foundry prowess, granted. I'm of the belief that when INTC upgrades their equipment in a new fab and couples that with their ability to 3D stack memory, it will reverse the supposed edge that AMD currently enjoys. It's a good turnaround story and I think Pat Gelsinger is a hands on CEO who can get it done. I have bought some shares via put selling and like you won't really get excited till INTC's dividend yield gets me in the 6% and at times support is not found until the 7% range. While waiting, I've been selling puts on KMI (13 to 16's) and T (16's), which if assigned will be yielding 7% plus. As you point out INTC's market share is very solid in their core competencies. They will proliferate their abilities when they compete in the foundry sector, which will be big enough to more than allow two competitors. TSMC has been sold out for the past two years. I do not see that sector as a zero sum gain market. It's growth for both competitors will explode into the future. What's not to like on a technology oligopoly. It's been going on for years in the memory segment. Bob

To: Return to Sender who wrote (88966)	9/9/2022 1:06:14 PM
From: Elroy	1 Recommendation Recommended By Return to Sender Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95427

Ok, but none of that (other than the 5% yield) is persuasive to me. Largest current share, but in the process of losing share, is a bad investment idea in technology stocks. Semi stocks do tend to trade together in the short term (months and even years), but over the very long term there is going to be winners and losers, so avoiding the "investment" losers is key. I think owning share gainers at a reasonable valuation is a great approach in semis. I also think owning analog semi companies may be a good approach from here. I think that means ADI + TXN and to a lesser degree MCHP and NXPI. ADI has been consolidating the analog semi stocks, so it should make the sector less competitive and therefore more profitable, which should complement the general growth of the space. I don't know analog well enough to know which companies are gaining and losing share. I also think investing in semis with exposure to autos should be great. I think NXPI is about 50% auto, and QCOM is moving into autos in a big way, beyond that I don't know which semis have more exposure to autos as a percent of sales than others. For me Intel is too product focused (high end processors) and poorly positioned within that product line (losing share to AMD+TSMC) to invest in. Semis may do great, and Intel stock could just flounder because of those two items. We don't know that that will happen, but I'd rather not sit in Intel for a few years and find out the hard way that it has happened. I'd only invest in Intel if I had confidence that their manufacturing process efforts will succeed such that Intel leapfrogs AMD+TSMC. Since I've got no ability to be strongly confident in that future outcome, I'm not buying Intel, at any price.