Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barry A. Watzman who wrote (47616)	2/11/1998 9:58:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

ST.Kurlak's 'Sermon on the Street'....and he 'spooked' thusly. Barry: In case you haven't seen it yet. Wednesday February 11, 9:27 am Eastern Time RESEARCH ALERT - Merrill sees risk to chipmakers NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch analyst Thomas Kurlak said on Wednesday the 30 percent rally in the semiconductor SOX index since December 15 has increased the risk of holding semiconductor stocks. -- ''With no recovery expected anytime soon and December industry sales falling at the fastest rate this decade, we believe an earnings recovery is not imminent,'' he said in a research note. -- Unit growth has also deteriorated rapidly, he said. -- Believes this reflects slowing end market growth since chip inventories were already substantially depleted in the 1996 correction, he said. -- Kurlak said the worldwide semiconductor market contracted five percent in December from November and slowed to a 4.4 percent annual growth rate from 16 percent last August. -- ''We estimate that based on current order data, worldwide sales growth will slow further and will go negative in January compared to a year ago,'' he said. -- Kurlak said he remains convinced worldwide weakness in the chip market reflects softening end markets in addition to overcapacity. -- Year-over-year unit shipments of integrated circuits shows rapid deceleration from last summer, from over 35 percent in July to over 21 percent in November, he said. -- ''End market softness is driving prices of technology products downward,'' he said. ''This trend reveals a growing oversupply of products ranging from disk drives to cell phones to network interface cards to PCs.'' -- Sees Intel Corp (INTC - news) locked in a losing battle with its customers who want lower prices. -- Sees high probability of third year of down dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chip prices. -- ''In this stagnant environment we believe earnings will erode as costs grow due to the lag effect of new capacity additions still coming on,'' he said.

To: Barry A. Watzman who wrote (47616)	2/11/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Barry - Re: " I see this giving the non-asian semis, and in particular Intel, a strategic long-term advantage for much of the next decade." I see it that way - exactly. Amidst this financial turmoil, Intel is making excellent profits and reinvesting them in new technologies, new architectures, new fabs, new processes, networking, plus their outside investments. That's why Intel is a heckuva stock to own - for now and the FUTURE! (Of course, Tom Kurlak's furure is limited to next month) Paul