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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maverick61 who wrote (34138)	9/9/2022 4:38:24 PM
From: the traveler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34328

bullshit--if you don't like what he does its simple--don't do it. no need to conjure up a federal case over it! the ignore button still works dontit?

To: maverick61 who wrote (34138)	9/9/2022 5:33:07 PM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34328

this is not the time for higher risk or speculative plays UAN is not a speculative high risk investment. They make a product which helps farmers produce food. That's like.....totally LOW risk, dude! Regardless of what happens with the economy, the world needs to eat. And with the futures fertilizer prices known (via the link below) and historical sales / production volumes known (via, you know, history), we can see what the sales are profits of CVR are highly likely to be. cmegroup.com That's way way way safer than most equity investments. We know customers need the fertilizer, we know the future fertilizer prices and we know how much UAN generally produces and sells each quarter. What's the risk? Hurricanes? Terrorists blow up the fertilizer plants? I suppose, but that stuff is not a very high risk. It's sort of like worrying the management team will die in a plane crash. UAN is high profit, low risk. You're confusing the high forward yield with high risk. I can explain my guess as to why the forward yield for UAN is so high (if you care) and it has nothing to do with speculation or risk. The fertilize makers trade like commodity stocks, so when times are great (like now) they trade at very low PE's. UAN's PE off of 2023 earning is perhaps 4x? 3x? Not really sure,but it's very low. Similar story with the UAN peer group of fertilizer companies - CF, MOS, NTR, they are all at low single digit PE's off of forecast 2023 earnings. The special think about UAN is it's (unlike the other fertilizer makers) not a C-Corp. It's a variable distribution MLP which distributes ALL of it's free cash each quarter. So......when the PE is 4x, it means the yield is going to be something close to 25%. The stock market appears to be valuing UAN like a C-Corp commodity stock near the peak of the profit cycle, and not like a dividend paying stock. Thus we get the forward yield of 30%, without the junk bond risk that we associate with a company with a 30% yield. That's my guess, at least. Normally if a stock was yielding 30% we would expect a dividend cut. With UAN, since the fertilizer prices seem to be continuing to rise, I wouldn't be surprised to see a distribution INCREASE in 2024 over 2023. Yeah, you can call it pumping, I call it clear headed analysis of a SUPERIOR investment idea.