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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ob C Qwe US who wrote (2702)	2/11/1998 8:37:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Speaking as a U.S. government public affairs officer (fortunately with nothing to do with the Middle East) that CO will get his backside roasted and toasted if the Pentagon ever finds out who he was. Uncleared comments from a field commander are worth as much as a post on SI. Just one guy's opinion. The only opinion that counts is in Washington. Just MHO.

To: Ob C Qwe US who wrote (2702)	2/11/1998 10:11:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 18691

<< CNBC is reporting this morning that an unnamed "US commander" in the Persian Gulf stated that US will attack within one week. Sounds pretty deffinative to me... >> Market won't care. The public will rally around the president and the market will probably rally too.

To: Ob C Qwe US who wrote (2702)	2/11/1998 2:36:00 PM
From: Timoteo	Respond to of 18691

With all the unnamed sources offering evidence, its hard to put too much stock in it. I believe the attack will occur because 1) it has widespread support from both sides of the aisle in Congress and the American public; 2) the powers that be are very frustrated by Saddam's games and we have put ourselves in a position whereby to do otherwise would be face-losing on our part; 3) the tone from Albright and Cohen is such that it seems inevitable since Saddam will not lose face; 4) even though he publicly states otherwise, Clinton would love it if somehow we could kill the bas%$#@ as part of our attack; 5) allies unwillingness to back us has less to do with Saddam and more to do with other issues-for the Arabs its the Israeli unwillingness to make concessions in the peace talks, for Russia its oil exploration deals pending with Iraq, France still has an inferiority complex over WWII and doesn't want to be seen as "me-too". This is a drawback from a military standpoint because it limits our options and our ability for a massive first strike. Nonetheless, since a massive ground assault is not planned, the risk of casualties is not considerably greater. All said, if the war is brief the negative impact will be brief. I currently am about 60/40 short/long but will shift the other way with whatever correction we have. I am increasingly convinced of the perception that many industries (biotech, pharmaceutical, computer, internet, etc.) are not subject to "normal" valuations. Therefore the skies the limit. Rationality doesn't matter; if the majority of traders believe its so, its so. Best wishes, Timoteo