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To: DavidG who wrote (28172)2/11/1998 9:23:00 AM
From: DJBEINO  Respond to of 53903
 
SMALL UPTICK IN 16 MBIT DRAM PRICES AND 64 MBIT PRICES FLAT YESTERDAY MORNING. PRICING FLAT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. LEHMAN 2/10/98

WE ARE WATCHING DRAM PRICES UNUSUALLY CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TRENDS THAT COULD CHANGE OUR PRESENT ASSESSMENT OF MICRON (MU-$35 7/8; 4). We expect a downward trend in 64 Mbits, which materialized last week in selected configurations (see our 2/6/98 pricing note), to put pressure on 16 Mbits. However, yesterday morning a small uptick in a couple of 16 Mbit configurations was seen, but DRAM pricing was flat yesterday afternoon. Yesterday's pricing runs counter to our expectations of a renewed downtrend, and we will continue to monitor pricing closely.



To: DavidG who wrote (28172)2/11/1998 9:40:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
David, TK is the best there is at timing.

There probably were a lot of positive vibes going into the GS Conf. (I had them myself, but my troops ended up on some other hills) on the expectation that even if MU came out and reported that a large spacecraft from planet X (for reasons known only to its high commander) beamed up all their fabs for transport to their home planet...

...Goldman would still manage to find some kind of "upside" to the news <g>

So maybe that catches some people long who ordinarily wouldn't be in there, more stock to liquidate, momentum feeds off itself...more price impact than on a normal day.

1. the man has repeatedly pointed out his understanding of investor psychology,
2. IMHO it is ludicrous to think that TK is unaware that his calls have tended to move prices,
3. the timing of his last two MU major calls are IMHO interesting
a) Jan. expiration Friday
b) on the cusp of a major conf. presentation at a competitor, in this case a competitor which has an extremely divergent opinion on MU.

Who knows?

Good trading,

Tom