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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Antol who wrote (20093)	2/11/1998 11:00:00 AM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Caldera files amended complaint against MSFT interactive.wsj.com This is the DOS monopoly suit that Noorda filed against MSFT. It is civil anti-trust which focuses on anti-competitive practices. Caldera received permission to amend their complaint to include current Windows sales in computing MSFT market share. That would make it easier for them to portray MSFT as a monopoly. The fact that Noorda did not abandon this suit may come back to haunt MSFT. =================== OFF TOPIC (Asia) I have been watching AMAT (semi manufacturing equipment)and Asia. Their CEO is indicating a 20% drop in EPS for the Feb-Apr quarter. He says that new orders beyond that are heavily dependant upon what Japanese firms do in the fiscal year beginning in April. Hitachi has already given some indication. IT intends to reduce capital investment by some 28% in the fiscal year beginning April. That gives us some indication of the dimensions of the slowdown in Asia. Separately the Bank of Toyko---Mitsubishi, with some of the largest exposure in Indonesia has offered its debtors a SWAP. Without getting technical they are saying that they are willing to accept payment at roughly 2/3 of the value of current debt. Indonesian government utilities are current offering creditors 1/3 the value of current debt. We will see the impact of all of this in Japanese fiscal year end reports.

To: Joe Antol who wrote (20093)	2/11/1998 3:12:00 PM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Joe, I sort of think that a lot of what's going on now in the techs is a giant bear trap that was set up all through December. Short money was going down hot and heavy all over the place. Then all of a sudden Reuters declared the crisis to be over and a whole bunch of folks got caught out where they didn't belong and were forced to start covering at a loss. I don't know if that's good or bad in the long run. A lot of times it looks to me as if the most heavily shorted stocks produce the best trading gains when the tide turns. When the bears panic, they panic real good. I'm starting to wonder what's going to happen to the market if all the short money gets shaken loose and there aren't any bear profits to hold it up if another "crisis" hits. The dow going into record territory a month after the world was going to come to an end makes me more than a little bit nervous. Hard saying what NOVL will do come earnings. I recall seeing an article last summer that suggested that a lot of companies were holding off network purchases until the end of the year. Maybe this time it will be different. I'm getting to the point where holding any companies stock through earnings is starting to feel like a coin toss variety of gambling. IMO, for Novell it's the gross sales that will tell the tale more than EPS. Has anyone talked to IR lately? I wonder what sentiment is like in that department these days. Regards, Don