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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (70115)	9/23/2022 12:43:09 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	5 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 LoveAG Robert O The Ox towerdog Respond to of 97611

Anytime there is a large lag between cause and effect, overshoots (in both directions) are the norm. The Fed and Treasury overshot to the upside, injecting liquidity during covid. Now, an overshoot to the downside is inevitable. Equal and opposite reaction, just like in physics.

To: The Ox who wrote (70115)	9/23/2022 1:19:24 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	3 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 catou1 The Ox Respond to of 97611

PMI doesn't lag as much as some of the others like employment etc but I see your point. The issue is the Fed really needs to get rates higher than inflation. Some could argue that they need to hike more and faster. If inflation is 8%, then they could just hike 8%, a series of 3% three times etc. I think what they're hoping for us to meet in the middle. Commodity inflation to slow as shipping issues are resolved, energy to drop and then just address the wage inflation though I think they're too late as I keep reading about everyone getting huge wage increases and you can't take those back later so then employers have to hike prices to cover the cost and the spiral begins. We have other issues but I don't have time to write during trading hours. We just bounced and hit the fib retrace zone for today so now it's decision time. As usual, I screwed up and didn't notice my turn line and shorted right near the bounce. Dummy!! Tried to reverse to long but algos wouldn't let me in. I chased it for 15 cents and gave up. I was dipping my toe in the water on some long term stuff but missed by a penny on one, a nickel on another and got filled on one of SunTzu's.