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Non-Tech : The Brazil Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DinoNavarre who wrote (2246)	10/3/2022 2:42:41 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

On Brazil's Election: Four million votes are tough to revert. The votes that could be Bolsonaro's in the runoff are: 1) The % of voters that voted as protest and after contemplating the edge of the abyss will vote for Bolsonaro in the runoff 2) Voters who thought Bolsonaro would win on a landslide and didn't vote. 3) Null and invalid votes that will be validated in the runoff. If Brazilians were like me and were thinking about how much they will pay if Lula was elected, the'd be worried. Consider, the costs of removing Lula from jail, making him elegible, organize the campaign... might have been high. Very high. It is basically reverting Lava-Jato and pay back to the perpetrators all that has been recovered. Adding reverting the businesses of those companies affected. Plus paying "damages" to those condemned for corruption in Lava Jato Operation. Imagine the interest behind the operation "cleaning up" Lula!

To: DinoNavarre who wrote (2246)	10/3/2022 3:40:43 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

- We elected governors in the 1st round in 8 states and we will elect our allies in another 8 states in this 2nd round. This is the greatest victory of patriots in the history of Brazil: 60% of the Brazilian territory will be governed by those who defend our values ??and fight for a freer country.

To: DinoNavarre who wrote (2246)	10/5/2022 11:25:35 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Recommended By DinoNavarre Respond to of 2504

Arabica Coffee Rallies On Smaller Exports From Colombia Rich Asplund - Barchart - Tue Oct 4, 11:31AM CDT December arabica coffee ( KCZ22) this morning is up +3.25 (+1.51%), and Nov ICE Robusta coffee ( RMX22) is down -5 (-0.23%). Coffee prices this morning are mixed. Arabica found support today on reduced coffee exports from Colombia. The Colombia Coffee Growers Federation reported late Monday that Colombia's Sep coffee exports dropped -25% y/y to 820,000 bags. Also, Colombia's Jan-Sep coffee exports are down -6.2% y/y at 8.58 mln bags. Colombia is the world's second-largest producer of arabica beans. Arabica also found support today on strength in the Brazilian real ( ^USDBRL), which rallied to a 1-1/2 week high against the dollar. A stronger real discourages export selling from Brazil's coffee producers. Coffee prices are being undercut by news of abundant rain in Brazil that may promote flowering for next year's coffee crop. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Minas Gerais had 51 mm of rain last week, or 185% of the historical average. Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop. A bearish factor for robusta coffee is robust supply from Vietnam. Vietnam's General Department of Customs reported last Thursday that Vietnam's coffee exports in the nine months through Sep rose +13.7% y/y to 1.35 million metric tons. Vietnam is the world's biggest producer of robusta coffee beans. The USDA June 7 revised its 2021-22 coffee production estimate for Vietnam upward to 31.58 million bags from 31.1 million bags but said 2022/23 production would fall by -2.2% y/y to 30.9 million bags. Coffee harvest pressures in Brazil are a bearish factor for coffee prices. Cooxupe cooperative, one of Brazil's biggest coffee producers, reported Sep 21 that Brazil's coffee harvest was 99.4% completed as of Sep 16. Coffee producer sales typically increase during harvest time to make space for storing their newly-picked crops. Abundant U.S. coffee supplies are bearish for coffee prices. The Green Coffee Association on Sep 15 reported that U.S. Aug green coffee inventories rose +3.6% m/m and +5.2% y/y to a 2-year high of 6,450,086 mln bags. Tight arabica supplies are bullish for prices after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories Monday fell to a 23-year low of 417,306 bags. In a bullish factor, Brazil's crop agency Conab Sep 20 cut its 2022 Brazil coffee production estimate to 50.4 mln bags from a May estimate of 53.4 mln bags as adverse weather curbed coffee yields. This year was supposed to be the higher-yielding year of Brazil's biennial coffee crop, but coffee output this year was slashed by drought. Smaller global coffee exports are supportive of coffee prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) on Aug 31 reported that global coffee exports in July fell -6.6% y/y to 10.12 mln bags, and total exports from Oct-July were down -0.3% y/y to 108.8 mln bags. Also, Cecafe Sep 12 reported that Brazil Aug coffee exports fell -2.5% y/y to 2.8 mln bags. In a bearish factor, the USDA, in its bi-annual report released on June 23, projected that 2022/23 global coffee production would climb +4.7% y/y to 174.95 mln bags, primarily due to Brazil's arabica crop entering the on-year of the biennial production cycle. The USDA projects that 2022/23 global coffee ending stocks will climb +6.3% y/y to 34.704 mln bags.

To: DinoNavarre who wrote (2246)	10/18/2022 10:21:16 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

Recognition comes slowly... Latin America rarely leads the world in economic policy. But it may be able to teach the G7 a thing or two about fighting inflation. Latin America’s inflation lessons for the G7 Region’s central banks were quick off the mark to act after recent experience in tackling rising prices MICHAEL STOTT Banco Central do Brasil president Roberto Campos Neto. The central bank started to raise interest rates in March 2021 © Andre Coelho/ Latin America rarely leads the world in economic policy. The region has struggled to grow since the last commodity boom, lacks competitiveness and remains overdependent on raw material exports. But can it teach the G7 a thing or two about fighting inflation? While central banks in the UK, US and Europe remain on the back foot in battling stubbornly high inflation, Latin America’s central banks have flexed their inflation-busting muscles and are reaping the rewards. Good timing helped. Latin America was quick off the mark to raise interest rates, beginning with Brazil in March 2021 — a full year before the US Federal Reserve. “Latin America led the tightening cycle,” said Alberto Ramos, Latin America chief economist at Goldman Sachs. “Its central banks didn’t have the luxury of credibility.” Barely a month after congress approved the central bank’s independence from the government, the Banco Central do Brasil started to push up rates aggressively, from 2 per cent to a lofty 13.75 per cent, one of the world’s highest levels for a major economy. Its tactics worked. Brazil is now making gains in the war on inflation, which has declined from a peak of 12.1 per cent in April to just under 8 per cent last month. That price-fighting success has not killed growth: JPMorgan expects Brazil’s economy to expand a better than expected 2.6 per cent this year, not far short of the 3 per cent it predicts for China. Chile and Colombia were not far behind Brazil. The two orthodox-leaning Andean economies pushed up interest rates by 10.75 and 8.25 percentage points respectively and are now almost done with rate-rising. Citi economists expect their rates to peak by the year end, with inflation halving next year as a result. Peru and Mexico complete the picture of Latin American monetary prudence, with increases of 6.5 and 5 percentage points respectively. By contrast, the Fed has tightened by just 3 percentage points and the Bank of England 2.15 points, despite the US and the UK suffering inflation rates similar to those of some Latin American nations. The lesson Latin America offers the world, says Ilan Goldfajn, the IMF’s western hemisphere director, “is that if you tighten ahead of the curve, if you react fast and you go immediately to where you need to go, that helps to win the fight against inflation”. The Latin American exception, as so often, is Argentina. Its government-controlled central bank is printing money to fund a budget deficit and it is losing control of inflation, which is projected to end the year at 100 per cent. Latin America’s central banks did loosen monetary policy by more than the G10 during the pandemic. But their subsequent assertiveness was not just a reaction to higher inflation. “Every country in LatAm has tightened the real ex-ante policy rate [the policy rate adjusted for one-year ahead inflation expectations] to positive territory, while every central bank in the G10 is still below zero,” Bank of America said in a recent study. High real interest rates have also kept Latin America’s currencies strong. While the pound, euro and yen are wilting against the strong dollar, three Latin American currencies have appreciated against the US currency this year: the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso and the Peruvian sol. So why did Latin America’s central banks act so decisively while their developed world counterparts dithered? Alejandro Werner, director of the Georgetown Americas Institute and Goldfajn’s predecessor at the IMF’s western hemisphere department, believes that G7 central banks put too much trust in flawed economic models. “We are much more model-based in the advanced economies,” he says. “And when you put into your model 25 years of data, in which inflation has been around 2 per cent, whatever you put on the independent variable side will not give you an inflation rate that is much higher than 2.5 per cent?.?.?.?the data that you feed the model is giving you an answer that leads to complacency.” By contrast, he said, Latin American central bankers use models “but they also use their experience and their experience of inflation is much more recent”. Goldman’s Ramos also believes that Latin America’s painful experience of high inflation helped bring home to its central bankers just how dangerous the inflation threat was. “Developed world central banks had never seen anything like this but in Latin America, central bankers understood that when inflation crosses 5 per cent, there is a regime shift,” he says. “At 5 or 6 per cent, inflation feeds on itself and becomes a monster. They [developed world central banks] never understood that.” michael.stott@ft.com