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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Valueman who wrote (1901)	2/11/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: Geoff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

Yes, the CNBC plug is partly the reason for yesterday's run-up, but also, I think that it only partially explains today's movement. Just general short interest is probably playing with the stock today. It may be one last push to short, since short % is near 9%, and make some money, then cover, and make even more money. Of course, this is just my theory, and is probably wrong. You've got to realize that LOR is challenging its 52 week, and all-time, high. Usually a stock bounces off that high twice before finally breaking through the resistance. we're passing by the second bounce off now. By launch, we will probably retest, and then next week break-through. But predicting such short term movements is like trying to predict the weather. In that case: I think it will be 70 and sunny tomorrow in NYC, but I could be wrong :) geoff

To: Valueman who wrote (1901)	2/11/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: Geoff	Respond to of 10852

Here are Readware's comments: ==================================================== Subject: Re: readware/cdradio Date: Mon, Feb 9, 1998 22:14 EST From: Readware Message-id: <19980210031400.WAA00236@ladder02.news.aol.com> CD Radio is 15% owned by Loral. It is currently in negotiations for content providers on its channels. We do not follow CD Radio from an investment standpoint. (S band technology is not really that interesting). It is hoping to sign up some 1.5 million or so automobile and country home subscribers by 2001. There has been talk about its downlink shortfalls, but the company can handle that with more towers. However, that will require more financing than is currently under consideration. Also, they might-- I say might-- need a third satellite, and that would increase the financing requirements some more. The company is also looking into providing for an easier utility for satellite downlinking in a car radio. I do not know if there has been any progress in that. Right now, as I understand it, you will have to use two radio outlets in a car-- one for AM-FM, and one for CD. We cannot vouch for the subscription targets CD Radio has, although I do know that one of the respected media agencies did the study for them. I am not familiar with the methodology they used. There is further thought that if CD Radio becomes "the radio network in the sky" that it will be bought out by a major radio network. That has been talk for a while now. Right now, though, financing is an issue with the company. And while the G* satcom telephony technology is not new , but has been used by the military (it is not 100% coverage, but coverage at certain areas by LEOs), the technology being offered by CD Radio is new and has not been used by the military. (Usually the military has been the first to have a satellite technology-- in fact, the military has always been the first to have a new satellite technology). We have not calculated any numbers from CD Radio at all in our Loral finacial estimates. Loral built the satellites for CD, and if CD never did a dime worth of business, Loral could always sell those GEOs-- that is, it would not lose money by CD Radio. It looks as if it can only make money. Skybridge is moving along very well. There is some exciting ATM technology (called "Cadenza in the sky") for the Skyrbridge GEOs being designed, and there is further design work being done on the GEO-LEO constellation that Loral and Skybridge will be fashioning. I assume you know that Skybridge expanded its system recently, and is now talking in terms of a $6 billion constellation. Speaking of that, did you know that Boeing told Teledesic their estimate for the 288 LEO system was off by like 40%-- Boeing estimates the cost of Teledesic to be $21 billion. The Skybridge increase is because of the market demand that has come about. They have increased the number of Loral LEOs to be made, and so far Skybridge has raised some $400 million in equity capital. Mitsubishi and Toshiba are doing the semiconductor work for the GEOs, and Cyberstar is to start its operations in three-four months. By the way, Skybridge is going public in the Autumn in the Over the Counter system. While I have read some of the preliminay material, the prospectus should be issued by September for the "road show" -- the term used for when a company goes to Wall Street with an explanation and demonstration of its product in seeking capital. The Skybridge presentation will be a plus for Loral, since LOR will be somewhat of a quasi "co-manager" of Skybridge's operations, although Alcatel will be the clear manager of the system. We will be following Skybridge, it looks like, from an investment standpoint. The market for Sky and Celestri is a larger market than G*-Iridium-ICO. It looks to be a $32 billion revenue market seven years, when the systems are up and running. The margins will be comparable to Orion's. Subject: Re: Japanese Date: Tue, Feb 10, 1998 08:55 EST From: Readware Message-id: <19980210135501.IAA17103@ladder02.news.aol.com> As noted last week in my posts on Japan: a Japanese interest towards satcom service providers.