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Non-Tech : Atlas Air -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DRL who wrote (118)	2/11/1998 4:45:00 PM
From: organicgerry	Respond to of 182

Nice move today, up over $3.

To: DRL who wrote (118)	2/11/1998 8:41:00 PM
From: Eric Berry	Respond to of 182

To All: Here is the press release for those interested: Wednesday February 11, 8:04 am Eastern Time Company Press Release Atlas Air Reports Earnings for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 1997 GOLDEN, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 11, 1998--Atlas Air Inc. (NYSE:CGO - news) today reported net income for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 1997 of $9.1 million, or $.41 per share, the second best such quarter in its history. Operating income for the quarter was $27.8 million and revenues were $120.9 million. That compares to net income of $13.4 million, or $.60 per share, for the fourth quarter of 1996. Operating income for such quarter was $29.9 million and revenues were $104.7 million. Net income for full year 1997 equaled $23.4 million, or $1.04 per share, versus $37.8 million, or $1.76 per share, for full year 1996. Operating income for 1997 was $83.1 million, excluding special items, which represented a 21% margin, as compared to $88.1 million in operating income for 1996. Revenues for the year 1997 increased 27%, to $401.0 million from $315.7 million for the prior year. Richard Shuyler, senior vice president and chief financial officer of Atlas Air said: ''Our results for the fourth quarter brought the year to a highly successful close. As we had anticipated, the air cargo market was extremely strong during the quarter and our customers flew at all-time record levels. This was reflected in the 22,333 block hours produced in the quarter, which was achieved even with one of the Federal Express aircraft out of service. ''More importantly, the healthy cargo market has continued into the first quarter and shows every sign of remaining strong throughout all of 1998. We continue to believe that 1998 will be a positive freight year for our customers.'' Michael A. Chowdry, Atlas Air's president and chief executive officer, said: ''The strength of our fourth quarter earnings has fully set the stage for 1998. The various challenges that Atlas had been facing now appear to be successfully resolved. All five of the Federal Express aircraft were returned at year-end, removing the major negative factor that had been affecting our financial performance. In addition, despite outside fears to the contrary, the strong cargo market has continued undaunted. ''Also, we were gratified that our pilot work force again elected not to seek union representation. Finally, our 747-400 delivery schedules from Boeing now appear to be relatively firm. Our expectation now is that the four new aircraft we have ordered will indeed be delivered to Atlas within the 60-day window we had earlier anticipated. ''These aircraft, coupled with the two used ex-Philippine Airline 747-200s that will shortly enter service, will be very favorable additions to our fleet. Indeed, our view of the marketplace is sufficiently positive that we have just reached agreement with Boeing to advance one of our remaining six delivery positions into late fourth quarter this year. All in all, we are looking forward to 1998 with great anticipation.'' In addition, Atlas indicated that it has completed the placement of approximately $539 million in Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates (EETC's) that will provide permanent financing for all five of the new Boeing 747-400 aircraft to be delivered to Atlas in 1998. The transaction, priced at a blended rate of approximately 7.5%, closed on Feb. 9th. Atlas Air is a United States certificated air carrier that operates a fleet of 747 freighters under long-term ACMI contracts. These contracts include the provision by Atlas of Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance and Insurance for some of the world's leading air carriers, including British Airways, China Airlines, Emirates, Fast Air, KLM, LAS, Lufthansa, SAS, and Thai International Airways, serving a total of 62 cities in 38 countries.

To: DRL who wrote (118)	2/11/1998 8:54:00 PM
From: Eric Berry	Respond to of 182

To All: And here are some comments from Motley Fool: In any event, Atlas Air (NYSE: CGO) delivered some big Borefolio news this morning. The company reported that it earned $0.41 per share on record revenues of $121 million. The EPS result easily topped analysts' consensus forecast of $0.35, as reported by First Call. In the follow-up conference call, Atlas CFO Richard Shuyler announced with undisguised delight that the five flying lemons the company had leased from Federal Express (NYSE: FDX) -- and that had caused no end of trouble this year -- have been returned to the lessor. Farewell, and grace Atlas's hangar no more! In their place, Atlas has arranged for the early return of two of its Boeing 747-200s that were on lease to Philippine Airlines. Those aircraft are being reconfigured from passenger to cargo status and should enter service in the second quarter. In addition, Atlas's schedule for delivery of new 747-400 aircraft from Boeing (NYSE: BA) now appears to be relatively firm. Shuyler said he expects four new -400s will be delivered during the second and third quarters. Pilot training and preparations for the new aircraft have already begun. Wait! There's more! Atlas's view of the marketplace is sufficiently positive that the company has reached agreement with Boeing to advance one of Atlas's remaining six 747-400s deliveries into late in the fourth quarter of this year. At year end, Atlas thus anticipates having a total of 24 aircraft in operation. To pay for the five shiny new freighters, Atlas just completed the placement of approximately $539 million in, ahem, "Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates," priced at a blended interest rate of approximately 7.5%. As is the case for many companies in the capital-intensive airline industry, Atlas is now fairly highly leveraged. Long-term debt stands north of $700 million. As a relatively young business still in its high-growth phase, Atlas's management concluded that it was essential to seize the moment -- and the favorable financing opportunities -- to pump up the company's lift capacity. In that regard, Shuyler said that Atlas's growth has been limited only by its capacity to take on new business, and not at all by demand. Atlas's customers flew their leased aircraft a record number of hours in the fourth quarter, and the expectation is for continuing strong demand for the balance of this year and beyond. What about Asia, you ask? Shuyler said that Atlas saw no negative impact at all on the Asian cargo market last quarter. The current quarter also shows no sign of a slowdown, other than the normal seasonal pause and contracted customer cancellations that typically occur in connection with Chinese New Year. Asian customers tell Atlas that the cargo market should remain strong as businesses there increase exports in order to attract hard currencies. All Atlas contracts are dollar-denominated (as they are in the air cargo industry generally) and are non-cancelable. Also, Atlas has only one aircraft under lease to a company in one of the financially weaker Asian countries: Thai Air. That sounds great for stuff flying out of Asia, but what about stuff flying in? Industry-wide, imports into Asia are showing some decline, Shuyler said. Atlas's situation is different from that of the small-package carriers, however, in that most of Atlas's flights into Asia carry either infrastructure materials needed for projects already under contract or raw materials and components flown into Asia for assembly and then shipped back out again -- such as in the electronics industry, for example. Longer term, said Shuyler, as the weaker Asian airlines sell some of their current aircraft and defer delivery of new planes, that will create further capacity constraints in the global air cargo industry. As Atlas's fleet expands in 1998 and beyond, the company will thus enjoy an even greater share of total capacity. In that regard, it's worth noting that of the 15 Boeing 747-400s on order globally, Atlas accounts for 10 of them. Negotiations are going well regarding the placement of the 747-400 aircraft with customers, and Atlas anticipates king announcements of such placements within the next 60 days. As for guidance, total block hours flown during the current quarter are expected to be within the range of 14,500 to 15,500. Block hours should to increase over the course of the year as additional aircraft come into service, with the Q4 total to reach approximately 26,000. Block hours for the full year are anticipated to total around 80,000. Longer term, the company anticipates block-hour growth in the 20% to 25% per year range. Currently, Atlas makes about $5400 per block hour in revenues. In response to an analysts' question, Shuyler said that the company is comfortable with what he understood to be analysts' consensus EPS estimate of $2.01 for 1998. look at First Call and see $1.97 as the consensus forecast. But, hey, I'll take $2.01. Oh yeah. Shares of Atlas soared $3 3/16, or $13%, to $27 1/2. Trading volume was five-times an average day's action.

To: DRL who wrote (118)	2/11/1998 9:17:00 PM
From: Eric Berry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 182

DRL: And now, finally, some personal comments.... CGO does appear to be taking off again. I don't think I've read a more optimistic press release since I've been investing... Looks like good news on all fronts: 1. Asia - flu? What flu? says CGO. 2. FED EX - Finally returned, headache gone. 3. Boeing - Hey, maybe we actually will get CGO it's planes on time. 4. Pilots - Union? We don't need no stinkin' union! 5. Chowdry back at the helm - Personally I like him leading CGO. They floundered while he was gone (maybe not totally due to the fact that he wasn't CEO, but it's still good to see him back.) 6. CGO has so much business it can't get additional planes fast enough - now that's always a good sign! 7. Tons of debt, but at least they took advantage of the great interest rates. Of the 15 747-400 on order from Boeing, CGO accounts for 10 of them. Now that's amazing. I still like Atlas Air for the same reasons I bought it almost two years ago. Great management, great niche market, great industry, and no 'real' competition from an all cargo company. Atlas Air is the 3rd largest Air cargo company in the world behind Fed Ex and UPS. But UPS and Fed Ex operate totally differently than Atlas. Atlas says to its customers - you pay us this amount for this length of time. We don't care if you want us to send 1 shoe or 10,000 shoes, the price is the same. And by the way, customer, you have to pay for gas, cargo handling, airport fees - we'll just fly the plane. A competitor just can't decide to start flying cargo and buy 10 airplanes and start going. Atlas has a huge jump on anyone trying to enter the market, and in my opinion is an industry leader... Let's take some stock price guesses: Last July, I predicted that CGO would hover between $20 and $30, for the rest of the year,and, miraculously, I was actually right. So now I'll try to predict where CGO goes from here - I think we will get over $30 fairly soon - days, weeks, or maybe a month. But I do not think CGO will fly out of control like it did last year (I rode this thing all the way up to $60+, and all the way back down to $20.) So for the rest of the year, if earnings go as planned, which I think they will, CGO should hopefully see the $40 level. With earnings estimates around $2.00 this year, that gives CGO a P/E of 20. Bought some more shares this morning at $24.50, hope you were as lucky! What are your opinions on CGO??? Good luck! Eric B.