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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zen Dollar Round who wrote (55255)	10/4/2022 3:36:16 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 56535

To play devils advocate to your scenario. although i do agree with you about the algo-s and traders controlling manipulating the markets and by and large getting away with it. The cook book thesis and honestly highly dubious model is yours and I guess the feds. we will raise rates mortgage rates goes up people stop buying houses other people stop building them people get laid off and prices go down. the difference being that the fed probably has 400 economists and untold computer models to predict the impact of increasing fed fund rates under different scenarios but we have seen nary a one. why is that? I would submit to you that things are far more complex than your model . One of the reasons that the costing of housing went up so much was be cause there was not enough housing to begin with and rates were low so it was a sellers market. We are still undersupplied in terms of housing inventory. people have to live somewhere if there is less housing built the price of housing and rents will go up . so is the fed better off raising rates and keeping the shortfall of housing or even exacerbating that or keeping rates lower and possibly keeping a lid on rents which make up 1/3 of the inflation number? Congress and pundits should insist that the fed start providing us with their model that they are using to predict the economy and their decision making process. What is everyone afraid of? That the emperors are not wearing any clothes? The paranoid in me believes that the market may go sidewise down till the mid term elections and then go straight up after irrespective of who gets control of the senate or house of representatives. speaking of shortages for the first time ever I found a note on my prius with 175k miles from a guy saying he could not find a used prius for sale and would i be interested in selling mine.

To: Zen Dollar Round who wrote (55255)	10/4/2022 4:45:44 PM
From: Trader J	1 Recommendation Recommended By Zen Dollar Round Respond to of 56535

Very well said JF, love it! I don't think you went out on a limb on anything you posted and I think it is firmly entrenched in historical model while weaving in enough of the current variables to yield one possibility for a realistic outcome. I'll be chiming in shortly as well and today's follow-on rally is quite interesting, but not a game changer as I see it, though it does lift spirits and we need a powerful bounce off the bottom to eventually hold the line and provide a basis for some extended rally into the near future ... and if not a rally, at least existence within a healthy range. A lot of catalysts and variables at play here and I'm loving the analysis of it. Thanks for your well laid out input. J