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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Qone0 who wrote (72155)	10/14/2022 11:23:12 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 catou1 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97957

China supposedly leaked that zero covid will continue until April 2023. Haven't seen the source of this info, but oil is certainly taking it on the chin today. I don't know what, if any, FA factors into your work, just thought I'd share.

To: Qone0 who wrote (72155)	10/14/2022 11:35:56 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97957

In your examination of oil chart, do you find that it is likely to move at completion, go to the HOP, or go passed the HOP? I have this oil predictor of sorts. It is not so much of a predictor as it is a SWAG at what is priced in by the oil traders. Last night it was about a dime below the spot, which I took to mean oil will be down today because there is no point in holding a position that you think will end up as neutral. But I didn't expect it move this much. Anyways, I developed the tool more for entry pricing rather than market prediction. But you can use it for that too. For example, back in the summer when I warned about oil falling, it was to a fair extent because the traders had expectations of $150 oil (see the chart below) and I thought that was too unlikely in the timeframe they would hold it. Last night (and even now) the positioning is a bit below the spot. I am thinking that oil will move to the channel. It may bounce off the top of the channel. At its bottom, the traders were expecting $60 oil, which was too bearish and I should have jumped in head first, but I only got some XOP rather than making the right bet. This is what it looks like now: