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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy who wrote (71352)	10/16/2022 6:57:22 PM
From: Ccube	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78774

That’s not a bad idea. Buying blue chips and holding for long time. I was watching 3year old YouTube cnbc on Tesla meta goog etc…. Noticed SnP was at 2650, so even after this down draft SnP is up 1000 points or around 30% in 3 + years…average of 10% return which isn’t too bad. Most pundits even bearish ones like from Morgan Stanley seems to think bottom will be around 3200 to 3400. On the SnP. Just watched Tudor Jones and he mentioned recession playbook. That he thinks we are heading into a recession or already in one and typically that lasts 300 days. I think it’s basically hide in non discretionary stocks, health care, utilities etc….but he also mentioned Walmart actually went up in 2008-09 crash. So let’s say these macro views are correct. Tudor, Drunkenmiller, Burry etc…. Are getting louder that we are in or about to go into a recession. And that usually lasts 6months to 18months with average of 10months. Earnings typically drop 10-20% in a recession. And we are getting some of that earnings revisions from fdx semi, wmt, target etc….. but lot of other stocks are still holding up because consumers are still flush with cash and have jobs and keep spending(visa,master card data etc) So if this recession is typical we will hit the lowest earnings some time next year, but I assume market will rally before the earnings bottom…..ie fed pivot to neutral…..inflation stalled going down. So I’m willing to buy now for the bear market rally, but expect market to make new lows till at least early next year around mar to June period. When fed pivots and earnings are at the low. But longer term it’s obvious that market is still in a secular bull market……and you would have done well buying the blue chip or the index (etf)