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Non-Tech : Radica Games (RADA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: larry watson who wrote (2520)	2/11/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: Wayne	Respond to of 7111

Hello all, Just got back and have sort of read most postings, Hope you don't mind my 2 cents as some of it is a repeat and VERY LONG. I hope known one thinks I was implying that the retailers are idiots. But I think it is their responsibility for ordering their products that they will sell. Radica could stock larger inventories and maybe they will creep up on this one day, BUT they have been there and done that in the past with other big hits. It proved very costly to the company and it's share holders when it was all said and done. I have a lot of confidence in how Radica is managing their business ( Profitably! )and the lessons they have learned. Another consideration in price movement could be that Radica had just moved up about 38% over the last 12 trading days, just prior to the start of this last round of profit taking/consolidation. To some, 15 - 38% profit in about 3 weeks is enough (nothing wrong there). I stay away from the day trades for the most part and go for the comfort of the long term fundamentals. With the news of Has/Tiger acting as additional fuel, the stock has retraced about 50% of it's last short term run vs. what would have probable been closer to a 33% profit taking round. In exchange for the additional 20% drop, Those shares have fallen into smarter hands that have a better perspective of the overall picture. I realize that there are factors effecting these numbers but in the past 3 months volume of about 20 million has traded in the 14 3/4 range and up. The buyers are doing so on the perception of their information. Sellers are probable selling on lack of information, fear, as well as different perspective of the info that they do have. Hence the shares move to smarter hands for the most part, (day traders excluded). Regarding Has/Tiger. In 1996 OEM work was 24.1% of Radicas total revenue (very important as they were pulling up their boots by the straps after getting knocked out of them for TO MUCH INVENTORY!). 1997 fell to 18.6% (however was a increase from yr. to yr. in total $). My opinion is that OEM in 1998 will again represent a even smaller portion of total revenue then 1997 was. So, perhaps 15% or so in 1998. Of that it is my guess, FWIW, that the margins on OEM is about 1/2 of Radica's average GMargin. Total bottom line effect if it all went away with the announcement would be less then 10% net as I see it. Not likely to happen for all the reasons already mentioned on this thread. Have to add that I agree with some possible up side. CC mentioned that Radica will be producing new Hasbro gameS in 1998 and realistically, I have a hard time seeing Yatzee or the rest switching to a different manufacture in 1998. Who ever the new manufacture would be, it is not Tiger (out sourced for now) and the others have already been there for Hasbro to have chosen from. More then likely 1999 games are in the works by Rad for Has. I'm not changing my expectations of Radica in the slightest. It will take a bomb Q1 to do that, and folks, it ain't in the cards. Be it Gary's, Skip's or my estimates, I'll be very happy. All IMO. I warned it was long winded, Hope you forgive me guy's! Wayne