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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alomex who wrote (1546)	2/11/1998 5:40:00 PM
From: Don Westermeyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Alomex, Sure the market fall in love with certain stocks, but eventually reality sets in. Interesting everyone says 'look at AOL' now. In the past it was NSCP. Or Cybercash? or Spyglass? There are lots of examples of high-fliers that crashed! IMO AOL is not a good comparison as they have pricing power AMZN does not. A lot of people will stay with AOL for 10% more just like if the cable company increased prices since it is a hassle to change. AMZN will never have that kind of pricing power. The time to short a stock is when everyone is in awe of the company and are blind to the risks! If the stock was $20/share AMZN would still be a very risky speculative bet. When the market values it at over 10 times (on a P/S ratio) it's competitors (who are better financed) then I have no problem waiting until Bezos runs out of money (or as long as he keeps borrowing at 10% interest)! I agree there will be some covering if the price should plunge, but a lot of the short money is also with professional shorters who won't cover until P/S or P/E come into line with more reasonable numbers. The expectations built into this stock price are laughable! BTW - Don't ask me why AOL is so high! IMO they are another good short candidate (to scared to do it myself though)!

To: Alomex who wrote (1546)	2/11/1998 6:46:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Respond to of 164684

Al, I was really referring to the market in general. There is an almost giddy tone to investor sentiment (Cramer was actually giggling on CNBC this morning) and that helps keep stocks like AMZN, YHOO, AOL and a host of others afloat. But it is also a sign of a major top in the market, i.e. the speculative frenzy stage. How long it lasts is anyone's guess as is what might bring it down, but eventually economic reality bites you in the ass, if a war or other disaster does bite first. Now, for your individual points: 1) There are tens of thousands of money managers on "Wall Street", all of whom surely consider themselves "pros". In reality, most are no brighter than the lowest quintile of SI posters. 2) If the stock gets below $50, you'll likely see a bounce off $45, but I'm confident it would then reach the low-30's long before you'd see $60 again. BWDIK? 3) The markets are very patient and forgiving, except when they are not. Remember Netcom? Went flying to $90 on nothing but momentum, but when it and the rest of the ISPs fell from favor, it languished in low teens and single digits for most of a year before management finally gave up and sold the company. Nobody halfway intelligent ever said it wasn't a viable company, but nobody wanted to own it either. In fact, MSPG and ELNK languished in the low teens and single digits also. The market wasn't very patient with them at all. Don't think it can't happen here. 4) "even if no profits are in sight"? Now that's a clear example of the kind of rationale that creates a speculative bubble. Besides, these "new markets" will require massive amounts of cash and will push out the point where AMZN actually does make money (if ever). They have gone into debt, on terms that can't really be called that attractive, and will have to float more stock to pay off the debt and to pay for these "new market" efforts. Hard to squeeze the shorts while you're floating new stock. BTW, does anyone really think we won't attack Iraq OR that doing so will actually accomplish anything? Best regards, Bob the Bear

To: Alomex who wrote (1546)	11/17/2000 10:03:48 PM
From: Alomex	Respond to of 164684

And now the best of them all, in which Bezos chicaneries are predicted: Feb 11, 1998. This stock is highly overvalued, yet unlikely to go lower than $45-50 per share. Why? (1) Bezos is a Wall Street pro. You have no idea about the sort of things that a CEO can do to manage expectations and keep a stock aloft. I expect Bezos to use every trick in the book to sustain the stock price of Amazon. (2) The large short position. If this stock drops anywhere near $45-50, you'll have crowds lining up to cover, making any down rally short lived. (3) As long as a company posts increased revenues the markets are amazingly patient with them. For example, AOL did not post a profit for many years, yet its stock grew unabated. Granted, couple of years back there was a correction, but if you look at the chart the profitable-shorting window was only two quarters long. Anybody who shorted outside that window came out even or substantially down (in all likelihood the latter). My personal opinion is that even today AOL is overvalued, but that is irrelevant. The market values growing technology companies differently than I do. (4) New markets. Even if this "book catalogue" concept tapers off, they can expand into CDs, and Videotapes, and apparel, and wholesale distribution agreements with independent bookstores, and content providers of book reviews, and advertising on the net, and net community.... You get the point. Amazon is positioned to take advantage of any number of internet opportunities. This will guarantee a steady stream of growing revenues, even if no profits are in sight.