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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (193036)11/2/2022 9:07:06 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217561
 
On the Huawei battle front

asiatimes.com

Huawei’s industrial 5G takes off

Sales and profits stabilize after more than 3 years of US sanctions

by Scott Foster November 2, 2022


Huawei says 5G will revolutionize manufacturing. Photo: Huawei

Huawei’s sales and profits are showing signs of recovery after more than three years of US sanctions while its industrial 5G is taking it far beyond smartphones as a shaper of the global economy.

On October 27, the company announced business results for the first nine months of 2022, reporting sales of 445.8 billion Chinese yuan (US$61.0 billion) and a profit margin of 6.1% on its “main business” based on “unaudited figures compiled in compliance with the International Financial Reporting Standards.”

According to Rotating Chairman Eric Xu, “Overall performance was in line with forecast.” The decline in the company’s device business – smartphones and other consumer products – “continued to slow down, and our ICT infrastructure business [telecommunications equipment] maintained steady growth.” ICT stands for information and communications technology.

Calculations based on Huawei’s 1Q and 1H results announcements show 3Q sales down 15% from 2Q, but profit up 27%, the profit margin rising to 8.4% in 3Q from 5.6% in 2Q and 4.3% in 1Q. But the 1Q and 1H profit figures were “net profit,” not profit on the company’s “main business,” which was not defined.

This, of course, reduces the value of the comparison. In all likelihood, 3Q net profit was less than profit on the company’s core businesses, but without complete, audited financial statements it is impossible to know. On the positive side, an 8% margin on core businesses would indicate a recovery from the sanctions imposed so far.

When compared with last year, 3Q sales were up 6.5% but net profit appears to have dropped by at least 20%. According to a report in Technode, management attributes this to “greater investment in new industries, software, and other fields, such as the new generation of MIMO [multiple-input, multiple-output] wireless technology and the rebuilding of tech stacks centered with AI [artificial intelligence].”

New industries at Huawei include private 5G networks for industrial facilities, electric vehicles, autonomous driving and cloud computing.

According to AI expert Ayush Patel, writing in Towards Data Science, “The modern AI stack is a collection of tools, services, and processes imbibed with MLOps [machine learning operations] practices that allow [software] developers and operations teams to build ML pipelines efficiently in terms of resource utilization, team efforts, end-user experience, and maintenance activities.”

In short, Huawei is becoming considerably more sophisticated than the 5G smartphone and network equipment maker that incurred the wrath of Donald Trump.

This sophistication was on display at the company’s 13th annual Global Mobile Broadband Forum, which was held in Bangkok on October 25 and 26. The event gathered “mobile network carriers, vertical industry leaders, and ecosystem partners from around the world to discuss how to make 5G a commercial success, as well as other high-priority industry topics like green development, intelligence, and 5G evolution.” It was co-hosted by mobile industry associations GSMA and GTI.

The Day 1 keynote address, delivered by Rotating Chairman Ken Hu, pointed out that while consumer services still generate the largest share of telecom revenue, “B2B 5G applications are also becoming a new engine for carrier revenue growth, producing considerable value in industries like oil and gas, manufacturing, and transportation.”

“These applications are not only innovative – they’re generating real commercial value for carriers. In 2021, for example, Chinese carriers brought in over CNY3.4 billion (roughly USD500 million) in new revenue from more than 3,000 industrial 5G projects. What’s more, these projects also generated 10 times that amount from related data and integrated ICT services.”

“With large bandwidth and low latency, 5G can be integrated with cloud [computing] and AI to provide entirely new services for consumers and businesses alike … presenting an opportunity for carriers to go beyond connectivity and move into cloud services and system integration.”

Peng Song, President of ICT Strategy and Marketing, added that the 5G business service revenues of Chinese carriers are up more than 200% this year while “the 5G private network scale of carriers outside China has increased by more than 100%. Carriers can leverage the advantages of extensive networks to quickly provide 5G private lines and 5G WAN (Wide-Area Network) virtual private networks to adapt to industries requiring extensive coverage, such as energy, logistics, and smart cities. Local private networks … are widely used in smart factories, ports, and mines.”

On Day 2 of the Forum, Executive Director David Wang spoke about 5.5G, which he called “The foundation of the future.” 5.5G is an upgraded version of 5G that should prove particularly useful for industrial applications.

“The next milestone we must hit on the path to the intelligent world,” he said, “is 5.5G. 5.5G will deliver 10 Gbit/s experiences, support hundreds of billions of connections, and help us achieve native intelligence.”

According to Wang, 5.5G has made great progress over the past two years: “and three things have become clear:

“First, the standardization of 5.5G has been initiated and is right on track, making it more than just a vision.

“Second, the industry has made breakthroughs in key technologies for 5.5G, and ultra-large bandwidth and ELAA [Enhanced Licensed Assistance Access] can now deliver 10 Gbit/s experience.

“Third, the industry has a clear vision for the IoT landscape.

“Looking ahead, our task is to tackle these five new areas – standards, spectrum, products, ecosystems, and applications. That, he noted, will require the promotion of technological research; the development of 5.5G networks, devices, and chips; and cooperation “to build a thriving 5.5G ecosystem.”

He did not mention an ecosystem safe from attempted sabotage by the US government, but the Forum was an optimistic, technology-oriented event.

In conclusion, Wang said, “As our standards, spectrum, products, and ecosystem mature, 5.5G will become a reality, allowing even more applications to emerge. Multi-sensory interactions will transform the way we communicate. Intelligently connected vehicles are set to become a third mobile space and see wide adoption, while intelligent connections across industries will lead to the dissolution of information silos, driving industrial upgrade.

“A new generation of innovative applications is now emerging, and our vision for the intelligent world is becoming clearer. That’s why all industry players need to work together towards the exploration and creation of these applications.”

Progress on the technology is underway. Last May, Huawei and China Telecom launched “Super TimeFreq Folding, a new innovative 5G-Advanced technology,” noting in their press release that:

“5G industry applications, like machine motion control, multi-machine collaboration, and machine vision AI inspection, have become increasingly essential in core production processes as they mature, increasing company requirements for network latency, reliability, and uplink bandwidth. A latency of 1 ms [millisecond], 4 ms, and 10 ms, for example, is now required for about 15%, 35%, and 30% of industrial control protocols, respectively. This makes meeting these new network requirements for core production processes an increasingly urgent technical challenge the ICT industry must tackle.”

Super TimeFreq Folding shortens latency from 10 ms to less than 4 ms and “The use of mmWave [millimeter wave, or extremely high frequency] in the future will further slash latency to less than 1 ms.”

This is an industry-wide trend. For example, a report on the Ericsson blog by Reiner Ludwig, Strategic Product Manager for Business Area Neworks, shows 25% – 30% of 5G latency in the U.S. below 10 ms.

During the Forum, Huawei, China Mobile and Chinese appliance maker Midea launched what they call the first fully-connected 5G smart factory in 3C industry (Computers, Communications, and Consumer Electronics). The factory, which is equipped with Kuka robots, can assemble a washing machine in 15 seconds, doubling shipment capacity while cutting inventory in half and reducing labor costs by 30%. Watch the 3 minute video here.

Midea acquired German industrial robot maker Kuka at the end of December 2016 after the deal was approved by the German and U.S. governments. Kuka has since built a factory in China. The transaction would probably not be approved today.

China is leading the rollout of 5G by a wide margin. According to industry and market research sources, China has installed about 60% of the world’s 5G base stations and now has more than one billion 5G users. China also leads the world in private 5G networks with a revenue-based market share of more than 30% last year according to ABI Research.

Earlier this year, GlobalData, a data analytics and consulting company headquartered in the UK, released a report that rated Huawei’s 5G mobile core portfolio the strongest in the world for the fourth year in a row. What does that say about the effectiveness of US sanctions and China’s determination to overcome them?

Follow this writer on Twitter: @ScottFo83517667



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (193036)11/2/2022 9:18:35 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217561
 
Africa, Huawei, etc etc

garoweonline.com

Chinese tech giant set to double 5G uptake in Africa

By Gerro Biko GAROWE ONLINE
Posted On 31-10-2022, 10:46AM

02-11-2022, 06:21PM



NAIROBI, Kenya - Huawei -a Chinese tech giant plans to double the uptake of 5G network in the African continent as demand rises from local telcos.

This was revealed by Huawei ICT Strategy and Marketing President Peng Song who was speaking during the 13th Global Mobile Broadband Forum.

“Our 5G business success is on up trajectory path and this growth can be attributed to the African continent. We started off with just 200,000 base stations but today I can announce that we have deployed just under half a million base stations outside China, accounting for 70 percent of the world’s total.”

Currently, there are 12 local telecom operators in 10 different markets that have adopted the technology over the last 3 years.

In Kenya, Safaricom plc is leading the way in the acquisition of the 5G network.

The 5G networks are popular for offering fast internet speeds, which are crucial for video streaming, games, and downloads.
Safaricom’s new 5G service has been shown to reach download speeds of 500Mbps in Kenya.

Peng Song added that “Kenya is one of the key markets that have adopted the next generation technology where 5G enabled mobile phones are already available locally, with the lowest-cost devices falling below Sh50,000.”

Last week East African largest telco firm -Safaricom rolled out 5G networks in five counties, enabling customers to access faster internet speeds.

The telco has unveiled the networks in Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisii, Kakamega, and Kisumu.

Huawei is optimistic that 5G uptake will continue to rise as consumers interact more on the internet and organizations embrace ultra-automation and maintenance.

“The acceleration of 5G uptake is also underpinned by the fact that existing video services deliver higher HD experience with its higher traffic capacity,” “Beyond expanding coverage, networks are being built to optimize different types of user experience such as optimizing them for better video download speeds.”

Recent research by Huawei, every Sh100 ($1) invested in a 5G service will yield back Sh2,600 ($26) in an 8 years period.

GAROWE ONLINE



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (193036)11/2/2022 9:24:45 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217561
 
Now that post-election Brazil is turning ripe again, let's see how Huawei does, better or worse than in Kenya :0)

economist.com

Can Huawei thrive despite American sanctions?

Ren Zhengfei, its boss, has big plans
Oct 25th 2022
Huawei once looked unstoppable. Having begun life in 1987 selling phone switches from a flat in the southern city of Shenzhen, in 2012 the Chinese technology firm overtook Sweden’s Ericsson to become the world’s biggest maker of telecoms gear. By 2020 its market share topped 30%, roughly as much as Ericsson and Nokia of Finland, its two main rivals, combined. The same year it surpassed Samsung as the largest maker of smartphones. Its fast-growing software and cloud-computing businesses were beginning to compete with America’s ibm and Oracle.

The American government had other plans. Successive administrations have regarded Huawei as a national-security risk, claiming that it has deep links with the People’s Liberation Army and that its gear could be used for spying (allegations that have not been proven and that Huawei denies). The American government has banned Huawei’s wares at home and urged allies to ditch them from their 5g mobile networks. Most cripplingly, it used export controls to starve the company of American technology and products, including computer chips, on which many manufacturers rely. In the latest blow, on October 24th the Department of Justice said it had indicted two Chinese spies for attempting to obtain inside information about a federal investigation into Huawei.



All this has turned a company on track to be one of the world’s biggest into its most controversial. The results have been devastating. After years of uninterrupted growth Huawei’s sales collapsed by nearly 30% in 2021, from a peak of almost $140bn the year before (see chart 1). Huawei said on October 27th that the decline in the revenue of its devices business had slowed in the first nine months of 2022. Total revenue grew by about 6.5% in the third quarter, year on year. As countries across the globe roll out 5g, Huawei’s market share for telecoms networks—its main business—looks set to decline. Its international mobile-phone business is dead, insiders say. The company’s 78-year-old founder and boss, Ren Zhengfei, recently told employees in a leaked memo that the company was in a fight for survival.

To prevail in that fight, Mr Ren is transforming the company from one laser-focused on a few core telecoms products to a provider of tech and services to a variety of industries, from carmaking to agribusiness. Whether this transformation can succeed matters not just for Huawei. America’s campaign to forestall China’s rise as a technological superpower is intensifying. This month Joe Biden’s administration announced new restrictions, covering more Chinese firms and more areas where Washington and Beijing are vying for dominance, such as artificial intelligence and supercomputing. Huawei is thus a case study in how effective American sanctions really are, how Chinese firms can adapt to the new world order and, ultimately, whether China has a shot at winning the tech race.

Immobile network

America’s first anti-Huawei weapon has been to block its global 5g roll-out. Geographically, the results have been mixed. America’s strategy is working in the rich Western markets of its allies. Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Sweden have followed America in banning Huawei gear outright. New rules in Britain force carriers to remove all Huawei technology from public 5g systems by 2027. France has asked operators to rip out Huawei gear from many parts of their networks. Other countries, such as Japan, have not barred Huawei but signalled that it is unwelcome. The constant risk of fresh restrictions has led many customers in places without bans to steer clear of Huawei. This has already happened in Italy and Portugal.

The developing world still seems open to Huawei’s cheap equipment. The company is furnishing 5g networks in Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey. Brazil, another potentially large market, has flip-flopped but does not appear poised to issue a ban. Huawei executives boast of more than 5,000 commercial 5g contracts globally, ranging from full deployment of 5g networks for national carriers to upgrading networks at ports.

How many more such agreements it can sign depends in part on the effectiveness of American export controls, the second weapon deployed against Huawei. These restrictions, which since 2019 have limited the sale to the company of high-end chips and Google’s Android mobile operating system, have already obliterated the firm’s once-thriving smartphone business. Huawei’s own operating system, Harmony, is unattractive to consumers since it offers few apps, and it offers few apps because it lacks the consumer numbers that would make it worth developers’ while. The chip ban, meanwhile, means that even though it has built much of China’s 5g infrastructure, its phones lack 5g because the required radio chips rely on American tech. This forced Huawei to spin off its Honor smartphone brand in 2020. Revenues from Huawei’s remaining devices business fell by 25% in the first half of 2022, compared with a year earlier.

The impact of the chip ban on the carrier business is a closely guarded secret. The processors used in network gear are less advanced than those used in smartphones, and some of them could be produced locally by chipmakers such as smic, a state-controlled firm. But probably not all, at least in the near future. The Tiangang processor, designed by Huawei’s HiSilicon chip division for use in 5g networks, was fabricated by tsmc, a giant Taiwanese contract manufacturer that can no longer supply Huawei as a result of the American rules. Publicly, Huawei claims to be shipping units as normal, thanks to a stockpile. But that “will start to run out very shortly”, predicts Bill Ray of Gartner, a consultancy.

The company’s behaviour in tenders for carrier contracts suggests as much. In the past 18 months Huawei has routinely bid the highest allowed price. This implies that it is trying to maximise profits while conserving its component inventories rather than seeking market share, says Edison Lee of Jefferies, an investment bank. According to disclosures on a large tender for China Mobile analysed by Jefferies, Huawei equipment accounts for 47% of China Mobile’s locally manufactured servers, down from 61% last year.



Globally, the company’s share of telecoms-gear revenues has so far declined by less than two percentage points from its peak of more than 30% in 2020, according to Dell’Oro, a research firm (see chart 2). But Huawei’s global sales of such equipment still fell by 7% last year. Much of its remaining revenue comes from China and, abroad, from less lucrative 4g networks, which are still being built in poorer countries. As investment in China’s 5g roll-out winds down, moreover, Huawei’s global market share may be eroded further, points out Stefan Pongratz of Dell’Oro. The idea of saving the foreign 5g business by selling its intellectual property to a Western owner, which Mr Ren entertained in an interview with The Economist in 2019, appears to have been shelved.

Mr Ren nevertheless remains undaunted. His leaked memo in late August, in which he asks staff to “feel the chill” brought on by gloomy economic conditions in China and abroad, should be read not as an act of despair but as his way of rallying the troops, insist some executives. And there is plenty for Mr Ren’s troops to rally round. He wants Huawei to become a purveyor of technology to a wide spectrum of industries. It has already sold 300m devices running on Harmony, including laptops, wearables such as smart watches and app-controlled home appliances. This month the Financial Times reported that it may attempt to relaunch the production of 5g phones using less advanced chips.

And it is venturing beyond gadgets and telecoms. It is making sensors to monitor soil conditions to help farmers fine-tune irrigation systems and cut back on fertiliser. It is building a business in systems for clean-power generation. It has also become a big supplier of software and electronics for carmakers, with which it has teamed up to develop various bespoke systems, such as energy management for electric vehicles. Huawei says that in July alone it had sold more than 7,200 aito m5s, a model of car jointly developed with Seres, a Chinese-owned electric-vehicle maker based in California.

It is also expanding its enterprise division. The unit is building data centres and cloud-computing businesses around the world. Its prospects look strong in China, where the chief source of demand over the next decade will be the government (as provincial and city authorities upgrade their systems to offer more public services online) and state-owned firms (which are frantically digitising and installing the industrial “internet of things”).

The rise of IaaS men

Huawei does not enjoy a technical advantage in such “infrastructure as a service” (IaaS) over giant local rivals like Alibaba and Tencent. But it has the government connections needed to win the juiciest contracts, says Yi Zhang of Canalys, a research firm. In just a few years this has helped Huawei become the second-largest cloud provider in China, behind Alibaba. Many Chinese firms are tossing out Oracle databases and asking Chinese companies to build local ones. Huawei is scooping up this business. As revenues from devices tumbled in the first half of 2022, its overall sales from the enterprise division surged by 28% to 55bn yuan ($7.6bn), or about 18% of total revenues. Gartner reckons that Huawei has become the world’s fifth-largest IaaS provider.

Maintaining a presence in foreign markets poses a bigger challenge. Mr Ren has long understood the importance of grabbing global market share. In the late 1990s he began deploying staff to far-flung places in Africa and South America to forge local connections. The strategy helped make Huawei China’s first genuinely multinational corporation. Huawei’s new businesses are not expected to make headway in America. But the company thinks much of the rest of the world is fair game. Its energy-management products are growing fast in Europe. One insider points out that over the past three years Huawei has been building up its foreign iaas engineering capabilities in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and South-East Asia.

However, barriers to entry in such businesses are high even in places that welcome Huawei. Much of the world’s information technology runs on software from Microsoft, an American giant. Huawei’s databases use Linux, an open-source operating system. The technical difficulty of installing Huawei to replace American systems that run on Oracle’s and ibm’s products, which are much more compatible with Microsoft’s, is high, says Boris Van of Bernstein, a broker. Edging out the American firms in China is one thing; doing so abroad is quite another. And although Mr Ren has amassed heaps of chips needed for its enterprise products, the new American rules will make these harder to replenish.

Taken together the changes amount to a revolution in how Huawei functions as a business. In the past its sprawling research-and-development (r&d) operation dreamed up new technologies, its engineers developed them into a limited range of core products and its sales team sold those to customers in two main sectors: telecoms and consumer electronics. This one-way end-to-end system is being replaced by a more open, two-way model, where Huawei develops products in partnership with its growing array of client industries. People close to the group say it now resembles a vast web of startups with deep r&d coffers. The company often spends 20% of annual revenues on r&d, the same share as Meta and nearly twice as much as Alphabet. That amounts to about $122bn over the past decade.

Mr Ren could yet pull off the transformation. His company’s 100,000 engineers have an enviable record of inventiveness. Yet it is hard to imagine Huawei regaining its global clout, especially as President Xi Jinping consolidates his power and ratchets up tensions with the West.

On October 24th, after Mr Xi named a team of loyalists to run the country for the next five years, investors fled Chinese stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell by more than 6%. Many big tech companies lost 10-20% of their value. Alibaba’s shares were trading at below the price at the e-emporium’s initial public offering in 2014.

As a private company, part-owned by its employees, Huawei is not directly affected by the stockmarket turmoil. But it is not immune to the geopolitical gales buffeting public markets. Rather than the next Apple or Microsoft, Huawei’s new ventures may eventually look a bit more like Accenture, an American-listed firm that advises companies on technology transitions, says Mr Van. That would not be all bad: Accenture has a market capitalisation of $185bn. But it is far more modest than Huawei’s multitrillion-dollar global promise of yore. ¦



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (193036)11/2/2022 9:34:14 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217561
 
Casualties in the 5G war

One of many issues w/ Ericsson / Nokia is that due to paucity of genuine industry in their core markets, they fail to generate industrial 5G / factory- / industry- automation sales and therefore lagging in accumulation of industrial 5G expertise

We discussed the matter at the get-go, and so few years later, validated

Interesting EU / Nato handed the Russian market to China scmp.com
Russian telecoms giant MegaFon eyes Chinese 5G equipment after Western suppliers pull out amid war in Ukraine


fortune.com
Chinese tech giant banned by the U.S. has been an early winner from Russia’s war on Ukraine


Am looking for same same but variation in the Chips battle

telecomlead.com

Huawei retains lead in telecom equipment market in first half
October 6, 2022
Telecom equipment market revenue increased 3 percent year-over-year during the first half of 2022 as against 7 percent increase in 2021.

Huawei, Nokia, Ericsson, ZTE, Cisco, Ciena and Samsung are the top vendors in the global telecom equipment market.



Challenging comparisons in 5G markets, component shortages, the strengthening USD, supplier exits in Russia, and slower wireless activity in Japan and India weighed on some of the technology segments in the first half.

Surging demand for broadband equipment was not enough to offset tepid developments in RAN, optical transport, and routers in second quarter of 2022.

Telecom equipment business in North America and China grew at a double-digit rate and a high single-digit rate in the first half, respectively. Market conditions were challenging in the Asia Pacific region (APAC). Telecom equipment revenues in Europe turned negative in the second quarter, reflecting the stronger USD and supplier exits in Russia.

A report from Dell’Oro said telecom equipment vendor dynamics were stable between 2021 and 1H22, with the top 7 suppliers driving around 80 percent of the overall market.

Huawei benefitted from its telecom equipment leadership position in China during 1H22. Huawei’s telecom equipment revenue share decline outside of China was negligible. Huawei accounted for 18 percent of the telecom equipment market in H1.



Global telecom equipment revenues are projected to increase 4 percent in 2022 and record a fifth consecutive year of growth, Dell’Oro said.

Dell’Oro’s Telecom Capex report suggests that the majority of the mobile operators are not revising their Capex guidance at this juncture. USD-based Capex projections have been revised downward to reflect the USD gains against most other major currencies in recent months.

finance.yahoo.com


finance.yahoo.com




To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (193036)11/2/2022 10:03:42 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217561
 
Back to the writing table?

More sanctions laws and executive orders needed ...
On balance, US sanctions have undermined their stated objectives. Sanctions are not just penalties on adversaries, but precision instruments that are supposed to facilitate specific outcomes. US sanctions have not only failed to curb China’s 5G dominance but have assisted Beijing in consolidating its power over the industry.

eastasiaforum.org

The paradox of Washington’s 5G sanctions

Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Robin Baker
1 August 2022
Authors: Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, ECIPE and Robin Baker, LSE

Sanctions and embargoes are precarious policy tools that can lead to inadvertent consequences without careful targeting, planning and coordination. In the absence of focussed application, Washington’s attempts to break China’s 5G dominance may have helped Beijing to strengthen its grip on the sector. Meanwhile, US government agencies are promoting alternative technologies that have opened a back door for sanctioned entities to enter the US market.



Consecutive US administrations have voiced concerns over the likes of Huawei and ZTE — particularly over their obligation to conduct surveillance on behalf of Chinese authorities under the country’s National Security Law. The US government has unleashed a raft of sanctions, not least to curb China’s commercial successes in European and Asian 5G markets.

Huawei — China’s most successful network equipment vendor — has been subject to the full weight of US sanctions. It seems irrelevant that the quasi-private conglomerate has far fewer ties to China’s military or ruling party than outright state-owned companies like ZTE.

The US National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) codified an informal ban on Huawei radio units in US networks. Most importantly though, the US Department of Commerce designated Huawei to its ‘Entity List’ of embargoed companies in May 2019.

This designation continues to prohibit all US firms and their affiliates from supplying Huawei with goods, services and intellectual property without a government-issued waiver. Huawei has been obstructed from sourcing vital components — like chipsets and virtualisation software — from US suppliers.

By contrast, ZTE — the less successful and self-professed state-owned vendor with military links — has dodged the brunt of US sanctions. ZTE and other state-owned enterprises with stronger ties to Beijing evaded the Entity List after the Chinese government negotiated with Washington on their behalf. The US Treasury does not consider ZTE a ‘Chinese Military Company’, despite the vendor being open about its ties to the People’s Liberation Army. As a result, ZTE continues to enjoy unfettered access to US technology, suppliers and financial markets.

Observing consequences, it must be acknowledged that the NDAA has had virtually no effect on the current or future security of US mobile networks. The legislation is limited to five Chinese tech firms and both of the mobile network vendors it covers have been de facto banned since a US House Intelligence Committee report in 2012.

Elsewhere, the inconsistent and contradictory application of sanctions has led to some paradoxical market outcomes. Huawei is now increasingly reliant on its home market, where state-owned operators award 90 per cent of tenders to domestic firms.

Aside from its carrier division, Huawei’s consumer device business has been particularly affected by its Entity List designation. With limited access to high-density chipsets and the Android ecosystem, the tech giant was forced to offload its smartphone brand, Honor, to state-backed buyers in September 2021.

State funds have also tried to wrestle away the firm’s highly profitable cloud and enterprise business to create a Chinese version of the US technology giant, IBM. In response to its place on the Entity List, Huawei has since intensified its own chip production as it attempts to curtail its dependency on Western suppliers.

The biggest beneficiary of US 5G sanctions seems to be ZTE, a Chinese state-owned enterprise with military origins. ZTE’s revenue increased by 14 per cent last year, propelled by local 5G rollouts, a burgeoning consumer business and the relative demise of its competitor Huawei. Recently, the firm’s Hong Kong share price briefly leapt by 60 per cent after it completed five years of US probation for an earlier criminal offence.

Sanctions have also prompted some expected, but no less troubling, consequences. Beijing has so far refrained from taking retaliatory measures against Microsoft and Apple. But Scandinavian vendors Ericsson and Nokia — ‘trusted Western alternatives’ in US diplomatic parlance — are being squeezed out of China’s 5G tenders. It remains to be seen whether their businesses can remain viable without access to half of the world market.

There are other examples of disjointed US policy on 5G. In parallel with sanctions, the US government is championing ‘Open RAN’. This refers to efforts to build 5G radio access networks with off-the-shelf PC parts, as opposed to the integrated solutions offered by established vendors like Huawei, ZTE, Ericsson, Nokia or Samsung. Open RAN may offer a market opening to Silicon Valley’s PC and cloud giants in a sector otherwise absent of US competitors.

Problematically though, US government subsidies and policy support are directed to one specific industry consortium — the O-RAN Alliance. In addition to its ‘Western’ membership, the Alliance comprises ZTE and other Chinese state-owned enterprises, including six entities under US sanctions.

Common product development and the cross-licensing of patents violate the sanctions imposed on these entities. Nokia temporarily halted its O-RAN Alliance participation for this reason in September 2021. But thanks to the US government’s non-intervention, knowledge transfers from traditional telecommunications companies to China’s military contractors continue unabated.

On balance, US sanctions have undermined their stated objectives. Sanctions are not just penalties on adversaries, but precision instruments that are supposed to facilitate specific outcomes. US sanctions have not only failed to curb China’s 5G dominance but have assisted Beijing in consolidating its power over the industry.

Washington’s desire for indigenous vendors is even facilitating an alternative route for Chinese players to achieve what even Huawei could not — to finally break into the much-coveted US market.

Hosuk Lee-Makiyama is Director of the European Centre for International Political Economy and Fellow at the Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics.

Robin Baker is Research Associate at the London School of Economics.

An extended version of this article was posted on ECIPE.

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