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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dino who wrote (496)	2/12/1998 12:06:00 AM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

Dino: PFE submitted their NDA application for Viagra on 9/29/97. On October 21, 1997, the FDA announced they will be giving Viagra a priority review. Under the FDA's User Fee agreement with the pharmaceutical industry,the FDA is required to make a decision within 6 months. Although the exact data of the FDA start clock is unknown, the latest PFE press release said "Viagra's approval could come soon." One final point, to date, every priority reviewed NDA product that has completed the FDA process has been approved for marketing. Have PFun! BigKNY3

To: dino who wrote (496)	2/12/1998 11:14:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

Dino, you have a right to be concerned, Re: "The only risk I see is that the market does not reach the lofty expectations the public has projected in the stock valuation." PFE is trading 43 X 98 earnings and 33X99 earnings. The only reason for this is Asia, because people are afraid to buy other stocks. My Merrill -Lynch broker this AM told me that he was ashamed that Merrill had a buy opinion on PFE with a PE of 43. He mentioned that this AM Merrill's chief analyst Charles Cough berated " drug companies paying 50X earnings to buy companies growing at 19X earnings ", alluding to the recent Smith Kline talks, and " that Overexpansion is the surest way to dilute your earnings ". As I see it the threat to the pharmaceutical industry is " Medisave ", the Republican plan to allow people to put away tax free a Medical savings account and buy drugs or insurance out of it. This I think will pass in the future because the trend in America now is to stop sending money to Washington which manages it wastefully and LEAVE it in the taxpayers pocket where it properly belongs and let him best make the myriad economic daily decisions using myriads of market input data, something big Government has consistently failed to do over decades: all they succeeded was to go further in debt. Anyway, I believe that Medisave will have an even greater likelihood of passing if Bill Clinton resigns as I think he will and the Democrats take a beating in the next polls. At that point the consumer will not pay $100 for a prescription that he can substitute with a $50 pill. There is no reason to pay top dollar for Zithropak ( PFE) because it is a once a day Erythromycin when a three times erythro at 1/3 the price will do. The same for calcium channel blockers. If the patient has to pay for it they'll get the cheapest and there are now at least two competitors to Procardia(PFE). The same for PFE's new antibiotic Trovan: There is Levocquin on the market which is just as good and more on the way; competition;prices come down. But also why pay $100 for Trovan when you can treat a simple Urinary Tract infection with a cheaper Bactrim? Same for respiratory infections. In fact respiratory infections will be the biggest hit on oral antibiotics. EVERY WELL-TRAINED physician knows that 99% of colds are due to viruses and ALL, repeat, A L L , antibiotics do ZERO, repeat, ZERO, to colds. When the patient will be faced with a $100 bill + doctor fees and out of pocket pay, he/she will do what people did for 100 years: take an over the counter pill, an aspirin, go to bed, and stop smoking ( hopefully, GG ). My two cents Dino, after many years in private practice as an M.D. and as an investor. The Erectile field will not make up for other losses IMHO especially since Virgo is an erection " ENHANCER ". i.e. Viagra cannot CAUSE an erection. So that if a person is totally impotent and can't get it up Viagra will do nothing for it. Vivus/ MUSE instead will because MUSE is a DIRECT penile artery muscle vasodilator. Further more Vivus is working on other arterial dilators. I am excited by the use of their new band AXIS that is placed at the bottom of the penis prior to pellet intraurethral insertion because that allows the medicine to stay longer there and be more active and less absorbed systemically. Then when the erection is complete in ten minutes the band is taken off and pronto you got 30 to 60 min to work with. You don't have to have a stop watch and wait 30 - 60 min like Viagra. Furthermore Vivus is undervalued now. First Call ( Daily Graphs/Investors Business Daily ) has $2.04 for 99 giving PE of 7. Zacks has $3.45 for 98 giving it PE of 4 !!!! All in my opinion. TA

To: dino who wrote (496)	2/13/1998 2:57:00 AM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

Dino: For this Board's comments, please find the following reference check: The Pfizer Pipeline TA <<PFE has IMHO and that of pharmacists I talked to a VERY WEAK NEW DRUG pipeline. They are living on old glories>>http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-340038 4 TA <<PFE does not have a rich pipeline of new, yet to to be announced, drugs per my hospital pharmacist, after they introduce what they've already announced; Trovan, Viagra and 1 or 2 more; what's left after that is poor>> www3.techstocks.com Fact: In the March, 1997 issue of Med Ad News, the magazine concerning pharmaceutical business, the editors "took a close look at the new product pipelines of the top 50 pharmaceutical companies....One stands out as the best of the best: Pfizer". Experience in evaluating Pharma Companies TA <<I can't advise you because even though I am a physician I don't follow pharm Cos.>> www3.techstocks.com Ability to predict PFE( with % change in PFE on the date of TA post as compared to today's PFE close of 84 15/16- the all-time high close in PFE's history) TA post re: PFE on 9/30/97. PFE@ 60.25. PFE has increased 39.9% since post .http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-2311961 TA post re: PFE on 10/8/997. PFE@ 64.50. PFE has increased 30.7% since the post. <<should consider selling his PFE at the present high?>>http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-2389263 TA post re: PFE on 11/7/97: PFE@70 15/16. PFE has increased 18.9% since the post. <<IMHO, I would get out of PFE. Too high PE. 30?..I would buy some VVUS @227/16>> www3.techstocks.com TA post on PFE and Drug Stocks on 1/19/98 <<PFE and drug stocks may be down even 50% if any threat to their future earnings is perceived>>http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-3202319 Fact: During the last 10 years, the largest PFE decline was -13.7% in 1992, the year President Clinton was elected. PFE has increased in 8 of these 10 years. Here are the yearly increases over the last 4 years; +12.0%,+63.1%,+31.7%, +79.7%. PFE is currently up 13.1% YTD. TA post on PFE on 2/6/98: <<If Viagra is not approved in perfect condition, PFE will drop 20 points in one day>>http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-3359217 Viagra Approval Predictions TA post 10/8/97 : <<Viagra probably 1 year (or never) away from approval>> TA Post 1/8/97 << Viagra delay; I think the FDA is in the process of reading the following mess and is noe taking a harder look at what they approve>>http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-3123463 Fact: Later that day, the FDA approved a new antiobesity drug Meredia. Hey, it's only a Roman Numeral TA Post on a a Science article that concerns only PDE-VI inhibitors not the PDE-Vs which includes Viagra. www3.techstocks.com TA incorrectly refers to this article as evidence of PDE-V in the retina.http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-3302238 TA incorrectly lists PDE-V for the penis and retina. No reference provided.http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-3209954 Newbridge Networks- Am I out or in? It depends on the Board. TA Post on 1/17/98 <<still holding at 33>>http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-3192488 TA post on 1/23/98 << Hanging around 30 until folks are reassured by Matthews in 1 month at EPS CC. Which he will do; he'll say" chill out folks; we are doing dandy ; we'll fix UBS, go out and have a beer and stop worrying , we are No. 1 .>> www3.techstocks.com Meanwhile TA post on VVUS on 1/26/98 <<I sold NN today and bought more VVUS @14.7>> www3.techstocks.com Fact: no corresponding post by TA on the NN Board. TA post on VVUS on 2/3/98 <<Newbridge Networks tanked this am. I'd gotten out of it 2 weeks ago>> www3.techstocks.com TA post on NN on 2/7/98 <<I am still holding on my VNW 20 Jan 99 NN leaps and a smaller (800 shares) than my previous 20K NN shares position>>http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-3368059 Respect for Urologists and Key MUSE investigators www3.techstocks.com www3.techstocks.com Reaction to a Niagra Falls Ad (An ad that never existed) www3.techstocks.com www3.techstocks.com Killer drugs are the #1 successful model for truly impotent men? TA post: 11/7/97 <<Phosphodiesterase inhibitors are killer cardiac drugs>>http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-2669865 TA post:11/11/97 <<The No 1 successful model that I see for truly impotent men is Viagra WITH MUSE>> www3.techstocks.com 4 An honest post that you really can believe. www3.techstocks.com _____________________ All investors... beware of the bias and hidden agendas of posters on investor boards. Do your homework and research. Best of luck with your investing! BigKNY3

To: dino who wrote (496)	2/13/1998 10:39:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 9523

Dino, do your homework and open a PDR first and see what PFE is selling. Nothing special. Ask your doctor if he thinks PFE has any blockbuster products in the market now, without competition. Answer is no. Except for Lipitor, cholesterol lowering pill, WHICH WAS DISCOVERD BY WARNER LAMBERT; PFE just sells it. Then realize that there are other cos coming out with competing blockbuster products and in fact they have better Genetic Archive research than PFE (Genetics is where medicine is going). Then factor in that $$$$s flowing into the health care field will shrink because it is the only place were there is still fat to be cut in a company. The Medicare bonanza will come to an end. We are not going to be doing expensive bypasses and drug infusions to 85 or 90 year olds with multiple diseases and no quality of life in whom statistics show they'll be dead anyway within 6-12 months ( and when I am there I don't want to be tortured to death).The big experiment in artificial life support in your 90s is rapidly coming to a halt. Take a look at UK were limited resources disallow bypasses, dialysis and coronary care units for heart attacks after age 55: that is were the baby boomers are heading because our Medicare Trust Fund has been raided to zero by grandpa and grandma and there is no money left. And if you think that a stock market with stocks at PEs of 20,30,40, or 50 will get you out of this mess I have a bridge up North to sell you too. All IMHO. TA