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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1009)	2/11/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 22640

Brazil leftists fail to halt pension reform vote Reuters, Wednesday, February 11, 1998 at 19:33 BRASILIA, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Brazil's supreme court rejected an attempt by left-wing political parties to block an important vote on the government's pension reform bill scheduled for later Wednesday, a court spokeswoman said. The 11 members of the Supreme Federal Tribunal voted 10-1 against a request by the opposition parties for an injunction to halt the vote, the spokeswoman said. The lower house of Congress was expected to vote Wednesday afternoon or evening on the social security reform bill. The reform would introduce minimum retirement ages and tie pensions to contributions, boosting the government's attempts to narrow a public sector deficit running at about five percent of gross domestic product. If approved by a three-fifths majority in the Chamber of Deputies without significant changes, the reform bill needs one more lower house vote before clearing Congress. william.schomberg@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1009)	2/11/1998 10:27:00 PM
From: jeremy smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22640

Steve, so you're "anxious to hear" my take on today's action? Huh? You want to hear from the guy who was calling for massive resistance at $120 ? What can I say? I (unfortunately) kept to my conviction and sold out everything on the open at 119 ¬. Bummer! Technical picture now of course looks fantastic. Also, in answer to your question: (1) the news re the withdrawal of the appeal/injunction against the opening of bids on phase 2 of the advisor selection came out AFTER the local market close. Had only muted impact though on the ADRs which were already north of $122 I seem to recall. Also (2) the approval of the Senate Civil service Reform came out AFTER even the NY close. Tone is set for a decent opening tomorrow. Have to say though that I agree your observations.It's just not very often we have such a run up in this stock without some moderate pull-back. I actually think we NEED a pullback (no, not just to allow me to re-position!!), but because I believe that a pull-back to mid teens will build a better base off which to mount a more sustainable rally. I do not think I would be a buyer here other than for the quickest of in-out day trades. Might buy some out-of-the-money March puts tomorrow (coward's short). Separately, I researched the Cardoso resignation thing. Turns out the law was changed a while back (One of Cardoso's own reform bills) such that there is no longer any constitutional requirement for an incumbent to resign before standing for re-election. He stays in charge right up until they either re-elect him, or dump him. (oh, by the way, law says though that he cannot use gov't funds to finance his re-election bid !!!!!!) Can't imagine he's gonna get a lot of work done though. Still good news. Jeremy