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To: Vattila who wrote (46793)

11/1/2022 6:13:51 PM

From: Vattila

Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 72217

AMD 2022-Q3 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Actual numbers: $0.67 EPS on $5.57B revenue
Q4 outlook: $5.50B ± 0.30B revenue

Rank	User	EPS	Revenue	Q3 Outlook
-	Zacks Estimate	$0.67	$5.58B	$5.85B
1	Pravin Kamdar	$0.60	$5.65B	$5.80B
2	Kelvin C.P. Wang	$0.60	$5.65B	$6.20B
3	neolib	$0.75	$5.62B	$5.50B
4	Joe NYC	$0.55	$5.60B	$5.65B
5	rzborusa	$0.52	$5.62B	$5.91B
6	Vattila	$0.50	$5.60B	$6.20B

Congratulations to Pravin for the win! He shares the best EPS entry with Kelvin, but edged ahead with a better guess on the outlook. Joe and I shared the closest revenue number, while Neolib hit bullseye on the outlook. On EPS, we were all again beaten by Zacks.

On the leaderboard for the year, where all categories have equal weight, Neolib now takes the pole position, just behind Zacks. Joe retains the second spot, while Pravin overtakes me for the third position.

Thanks to everyone for playing!

---

Scoreboards

Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.

AMD 2022 EPS Contest Scores

2022 Leaderboard

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	3	0.68	0.62	0.46	0.5892
1	neolib	3	0.65	0.56	0.54	0.5835
2	Joe NYC	3	0.62	0.59	0.50	0.5683
3	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.61	0.58	0.44	0.5472
4	Vattila	3	0.62	0.59	0.36	0.5246
5	rzborusa	3	0.59	0.56	0.42	0.5206
6	Kelvin C.P. Wang	3	0.61	0.55	0.37	0.5081
7	gvatty	2	0.48	0.38	0.30	0.3848
8	fastpathguru	1	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.1038

2022 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	neolib	3	0.86	0.75	0.72	0.7780
-	Zacks Estimate	3	0.90	0.83	0.60	0.7746
2	gvatty	2	0.95	0.75	0.60	0.7696
3	Joe NYC	3	0.82	0.79	0.67	0.7577
4	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.82	0.78	0.59	0.7296
5	Vattila	3	0.83	0.79	0.48	0.6995
6	rzborusa	3	0.79	0.74	0.55	0.6942
7	Kelvin C.P. Wang	3	0.81	0.73	0.49	0.6774
8	fastpathguru	1	0.59	0.42	0.24	0.4153

AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores

2021 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.93	0.86	0.72	0.8397
2	Joe NYC	4	0.94	0.88	0.69	0.8367
3	rzborusa	4	0.95	0.78	0.70	0.8105
4	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.93	0.75	0.75	0.8101
5	gvatty	4	0.93	0.81	0.69	0.8068
6	Vattila	4	0.92	0.77	0.71	0.7966
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.83	0.65	0.53	0.6694
7	neolib	3	0.71	0.66	0.61	0.6614
8	engineer	1	0.24	0.18	0.21	0.2111
9	fastpathguru	1	0.23	0.18	0.15	0.1852
10	eetnoyer	1	0.20	0.17	0.10	0.1556

2021 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	neolib	3	0.95	0.88	0.82	0.8819
2	engineer	1	0.96	0.73	0.84	0.8445
3	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.93	0.86	0.72	0.8397
4	Joe NYC	4	0.94	0.88	0.69	0.8367
5	rzborusa	4	0.95	0.78	0.70	0.8105
6	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.93	0.75	0.75	0.8101
7	gvatty	4	0.93	0.81	0.69	0.8068
8	Vattila	4	0.92	0.77	0.71	0.7966
9	fastpathguru	1	0.92	0.71	0.59	0.7408
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.83	0.65	0.53	0.6694
10	eetnoyer	1	0.78	0.68	0.40	0.6222

AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores

2020 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Vattila	4	0.95	0.85	0.65	0.8169
2	neolib	4	0.98	0.80	0.61	0.7972
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.94	0.79	0.62	0.7856
3	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.72	0.62	0.50	0.6128
4	rzborusa	3	0.69	0.57	0.47	0.5812
5	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.24	0.23	0.17	0.2150
6	jc474	1	0.23	0.19	0.19	0.2020

2020 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.96	0.92	0.69	0.8601
2	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.96	0.83	0.66	0.8171
3	Vattila	4	0.95	0.85	0.65	0.8169
4	jc474	1	0.92	0.74	0.76	0.8080
5	neolib	4	0.98	0.80	0.61	0.7972
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.94	0.79	0.62	0.7856
6	rzborusa	3	0.93	0.76	0.63	0.7749

AMD 2019 EPS Contest Scores

2019 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.99	0.97	0.96	0.9708
1	Vattila	4	0.98	0.96	0.84	0.9264
2	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.98	0.95	0.84	0.9258
3	rzborusa	3	0.73	0.70	0.70	0.7106
4	neolib	3	0.73	0.72	0.65	0.6977
5	knykny	2	0.49	0.46	0.40	0.4496
6	gzubeck	2	0.46	0.37	0.32	0.3822
7	THE WATSONYOUTH	1	0.25	0.24	0.25	0.2468
8	FUBHO	1	0.21	0.20	0.25	0.2199
9	Harvey Allen	1	0.20	0.17	0.25	0.2058

2019 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	THE WATSONYOUTH	1	1.00	0.96	1.00	0.9871
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.99	0.97	0.96	0.9708
2	rzborusa	3	0.97	0.93	0.94	0.9475
3	neolib	3	0.97	0.96	0.87	0.9303
4	Vattila	4	0.98	0.96	0.84	0.9264
5	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.98	0.95	0.84	0.9258
6	knykny	2	0.97	0.93	0.80	0.8991
7	FUBHO	1	0.84	0.80	1.00	0.8796
8	Harvey Allen	1	0.80	0.67	1.00	0.8230
9	gzubeck	2	0.92	0.73	0.64	0.7643