To: TokyoMex who wrote (11062 ) 2/11/1998 8:39:00 PM From: Hawkmoon Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 31646
Joe, I think most people would be quite happy with 50% of that target. I don't disagree that a $2.4 Billion market is feasible in this kind of market place. However, I don't believe it would last for long without substantial acquisitions to add to the revenue flow. Some may disagree, but I see an acquisition of Wonder Ware as a feasible extension of the company's core business. However, I'm sure there are many other firms that TPRO will be able to acquire in 1998-9 as the market supports this stock. Considering that time is growing short and the task is so large for insure systems are compliant the market realizes that certain Y2K technology and information is imperative to the health of the overall economy. My theory is that TPRO will become the KEA of the manufacturing consulting sector. I see a possibility of $50-80 and maybe a split after that for 1998. One issue is that there are only 24 million shares outstanding and the institutions want more liquidity of shares that they can take substantial positions in. As for Y2K costing 3 trillion, I think that is still a speculation. 1/2 of the cost being attributed solely to embedded systems remediation also seems somewhat uncertain. I'll give you an example. Gartner Group has previously calculated $600 billion be the total global cost, $300 million in the US alone. Furthermore tack on some $1 trillion in legal costs. Figures for the consulting market range from $14-100 billion for all Y2K firms. (wide spread, I realize) Basically, what I'm trying to say is that actual consulting work will be a relatively minor cost, but still significant to those companies performing it. Much of the costs will be from diverting current in-house resources from other projects and directing them toward Y2K remediation. This is a part of the cost, both in lost business for displaced IT vendors, upgrading hardware/software, and lost productivity from having upgrade current systems rather than replace them outright. While I would like to see TPRO get a massive chunk of the embedded systems business, let's face the fact that most of it will be done in-house and most of the costs will be replacing controller boards. Unless I'm misunderstanding TAVA's current products offerings and limitations, their greatest resource as a money maker is the database of suspect or non-compliant chips. Where exactly did you arrive at the $3 trillion figure?? I have yet to see anyone upgrade the costs to that extreme level. Regards, Ron