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To: skinowski who wrote (771083)11/7/2022 4:46:54 PM
From: skinowski  Respond to of 793866
 
Doesn’t sound like Mr Budanov is in favor of a negotiated settlement. He expects great victories - and destruction of Russian federation (kind of goes along with his alleged specific plans for Russia's destruction).




To: skinowski who wrote (771083)11/7/2022 5:52:08 PM
From: TimF1 Recommendation

Recommended By
skinowski

  Respond to of 793866
 
I don't think it will happen by the end of November either unless either

1 - Russia decides that the position isn't tenable and pulls back deliberately to preserve as much of their forces as they can and to shorten their lines in the south (at the expense of shortening Ukraine's lines as well, basically that area would be more stable and the fight would probably move elsewhere).

or

2 - Ukraine overemphasis the attack in that area compared to attacking or defending elsewhere (possibly causing problems in those areas) and does so super-aggressively (taking a ton of casualties in the process).

The supply situation for the Russians can't be great on that side of the river and I could see Ukraine taking it at some point, but I don't see eminent collapse, and the force density here is higher than it was in Kharkiv Oblast so I don't think you can just push through one line and force the Russians to retreat.



To: skinowski who wrote (771083)11/9/2022 9:24:34 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793866
 
It looks like it might be option 1 from my other reply, that the Russians are going to pull out of Kherson city and the rest of the area on that side of the Dnieper. Not totally sure that's the case, there have been rumors about it before and it didn't happen, but now the Russians are saying they are going to pull out. Makes sense IMO as its too hard to supply the forces there.