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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Labrador who wrote (7653)	2/11/1998 9:28:00 PM
From: scott bolio	Respond to of 13594

AOL cuts back Studios staff High-profile sites to lose 100 positions, company reports By Emory Thomas Jr. MSNBC Feb. 11 - AOL Studios, the content-development division of America Online, said it laid off more than 100 people as part of a continuing reorganization announced earlier in the week. The cutbacks, made Tuesday, affected three online products that have been highly touted in the past by AOL - Entertainment Asylum, WorldPlay and CyberPark. msnbc.com

To: Labrador who wrote (7653)	2/11/1998 11:52:00 PM
From: Mike C	Respond to of 13594

Bob - AOL's projected income and future - factors that have been a part in the run-up, are dependent on the number of subscribers. A most important trend is unfolding and that is the rate of increase in new subscribers is slowing, especially if one considers a Christmas bump via new computers online. We are talking here about the RATE of increase not the NUMBER of new subscribers. A downward trending slope indicates a leveling off. If total number of subscribers peaks at between 15 and 20 million what does this do to income and future business projections. If AOL currently brings in 17 cents with 12 million on line, what revenues will 18 million eyes peovide? 90 cents a share?

To: Labrador who wrote (7653)	2/12/1998 12:23:00 AM
From: Andrew Fenic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

A number of triggers may cause AOL to lose between 45% and 70% of its value: 1. Any sizeable correction in the tech sector. 2. Any sign that AOL growth is slowing. 3. Any sign that competition from ISP's is heating up. 4. Any sign that subscribers are angry about the price hike. 5. Any of the regularly occurring AOL capacity shortage disasters. 6. A negative article in the WSJ trashing AOL's bloated fundamentals Heck I'm just getting started. I could literally go on for weeks citing events that could pop the balloon. Generally though the best single sign is when irrational long investors start proclaiming that the stock can't go down. As soon as that happened with IOM, and it is happening with AOL now, IOM got its butt kicked so hard and so fast that to this date it has not and probably will never recover. Look for AOL to get hurt badly. And soon.