To: TampaCricket who wrote (204738 ) 11/10/2022 10:51:36 AM From: DinoNavarre 1 RecommendationRecommended By roguedolphin
Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206093 Hi TC....Just some general coal related stuff..... I had pretty good runs with larger positions in YZCAY, TGA.L / TNGRF and WHITF (just let go of my remaining Whitehaven shares on Monday). Here in the North American based guys, I did somewhat decently with larger positions in coal related companies like NRP, NC and CEIX, also had smaller positions in ARLP, BTU and HNRG (sold my remaining BTU and HNRG shares on Monday). I will probably reenter YZCAY in a small way if decent evidence of China reopening appears on the scene.... I would also like to reenter TNGRF again, looking at how the EU NG gas draw develops / LNG prices react this winter/spring in Europe, also keeping an eye on Ukraine war + their NG gas storage in western Ukraine (bidirectional flow allowing Europe fill + draw from it in the future). Will it get refilled in time for 2024 winter usage? Will peace breakout....EU get back with their good friend Putin? Ramping up of Russian coal....Reentering EU markets through third party countries again? Can France get the nukes up and running again in a timely manner? AFA EU Industry goes....Fuel switching - Diesel, NG and Oil prices will make choices tough! Deindustrialization, or coal for longer period on electric generation side....Freeing up more NG for industry? Hoping South Africa/Richards Bay can get their crap together too....coal fires, train derailments, folks stealing electrical overhead power lines utilized by the coal trains....Time to put a few diesels back on the tracks! On the plus side, Columbia's new government appears to be environmental extremists....Maybe they will cause problems for Drummond's operations, closures/reduced outputs....Wonder if the boys back in Alabama are worried? On the plus side in the US....In extreme cold weather events this winter, coal burn will probably ramp up before back-up liquid fuels are used....Guessing that most generators don't want to replenish fuel tank volumes at current prices....Unless you are a "rubber stamped" utility that can pass on costs to the ratepayers or you bought forward.... Do you see any problems with coal infrastructure/transport/export capabilities in the US? River levels, diesel prices, railroad strikes and shortage of workers....Renewed attacks from our government (like with oil)? How about coal companies impaired ability to receive loans or maintain insurance policies? Even the age / maintainability of most of the coal fired plants in the US? Plenty of stuff on both sides of the scale....It was a good run...bought early....probably sold early....as always.... Are markets still forward looking? Does uncertainty even matter anymore? Have a good one!