Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Qone0 who wrote (73775)	11/11/2022 11:52:25 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97601

OK, but that is not what I meant. You have a system where NQ retraces from .618 to .886 and bounces and comes down again. And if I am not mistaken there is another bigger picture relating to the retracement of March 2020 to November 2022. My question is, purely based on these two systems, what marks a change/reversal of the bearish bias. I am not looking for a FA or macro based answer.

To: Qone0 who wrote (73775)	11/11/2022 12:34:58 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	3 Recommendations Recommended By skier31 Sun Tzu towerdog Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97601

I haven't really dug hard into it to prove it beyond a shadow of doubt but on my EMAs, it "appears" that when a bear ends, the percentage of over 50 EMA goes well over 80, usually into the 90s on the initial push. Then on the pullbacks, it doesn't drop below 50s-60s. So far this year we haven't breached 80 on the upside and each drop took us to 30 or below. On the bullish argument, lows are usually low single digits. We've dropped to 5 twice now so September and October could have been a double bottom. We just don't have proof on the upside. How this rally plays out will be telling. We came close this summer too but the retrace violated the low side rule which told me that wasn't it. I was messing around last night updating databases and noticed something so obvious, it HAS to be wrong. LOL I was working on the monetary base and noticed the totals are almost exactly the SPX level. I need to look closer to the more distant past but so far it's been a match. If true, we should be around 4400 SPX next year. I'll post a chart later. I'm having Internet issues again today so had to stop trading and can't post stuff or barely use the internet on my computer. Today looked like a huge rotation this morning. What had been strong the last few weeks/months was weak and what was being destroyed was strong. Healthcare, drugs were getting killed. Real steady earnings companies that had been holding up like WM, UNH, just the XLP in general. The NASDAQ/NDX, ARKK etc were up, SPX slightly up, DJI down big.