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To: Tom O'Brien who wrote (1381)2/11/1998 10:00:00 PM
From: Todd D. Wiener  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3813
 
Tom-

AMAT is gaining market share in several ways. First, they make acquisitions (2 big ones last year), and we might see another in 1998. Although AMAT competes in most of NVLS' markets, NVLS doesn't compete in most of AMAT's markets. In other words, AMAT can gain market share without affecting NVLS' share. Over the next year or two, KLAC may lose some business to AMAT, as a result of AMAT's new product offerings in the wafer inspection arena. AMAT also plans on ultimately supplying products in most or all areas of chip-equip. Theoretically, NVLS could continue to take share from AMAT in PVD and CVD, but AMAT could gain share in the overall equipment market. But AMAT is likely gaining market share from the weak/small companies in the equipment industry. Most of the big companies will continue to do well.

NVLS is very well positioned for the future. I suspect that in 3 years, NVLS will be a very different company, due to acquisitions in CMP and etch, as well as a possible merger with another big player.

Todd



To: Tom O'Brien who wrote (1381)2/11/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: David Lawrence  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3813
 
I am an outsider, with no practical technical knowledge of the industry. All of my research points to two things when long-term investing in the semiconductor capital equipment sector:

1) AMAT and NVLS both product first rate products. (That's not to say that there aren't other first rate products out there.)

2) Quality counts for everything to buyers of the equipment. Cost counts for very little.

AMAT gaining overall share does not necessarily bode ill for NVLS. In fact, it is actually supportive if 1 and 2 are correct assumptions.