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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (73830)	11/13/2022 7:28:38 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 Lou Weed Respond to of 97815

160 revisions laters, the program can sort of tell you how to figure out if we are in a bull, bear, or trending market. But TradingView doesn't make it easy to program it...plus I have other indicators that are more reliable but are really hard to program in TV...nonetheless I will give it a try. With that in mind, this is where we are: (1) In a bull market all 3 band are trending up whereas in a bear market all 3 trend down. This may seem like "Duh!" but remember that I am not measure moving averages or the like. One problem with this approach is that it is a bit too slow (but still better than flipping a coin). Which brings us to (2) In a bull market you never hit the lower band and your buy points are at the midline, targeting the upper band. Whereas in a bear market the midline is sort of your upper limit and the lower band is your endpoint target. I sort of managed to program it to identify the periods that meet the above criteria by labeling them as Bull, Bear, and Sideways, but I still don't know pinescript well enough to make it look neat and they crowd the chart. But it's coming along. So here are how the program does in various periods: 2008/2009 You definitely know that bear market ended and a new bull market has started b/c your last buy lands above the upper band and the sell targets fail to go down. Plus by then all the bands are rising. In contrast, in Sept 2008, the buy signal only pushed the prices to the midband before failing, plus all trends were down. So that was clearly a bear market signal. 2013/2014 A lot of algorithmic traders consider this period to be the hardest time. This would not be the case if you augment the above two rules with a simple 3rd one: Do not short the market if 2 out of 3 bands are rising and the stochastic is not below 75%. 2021/2022 I know everyone has been waiting for this <g>. The system tells you that the bull market ended in January 2022 (because we hit the lower band which was much lower), and confirms a bear market when the buy signal fails to keep prices above the midband. This has been the easy part of the programming. The hard part is all the other indicators that I know how to read, but they are not so easy to program. The work continues. Finally, here's the current zoomed in view with more flexible parameters. We'll know if the bear market has ended, if prices endure above the top line.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (73830)	11/15/2022 10:01:50 AM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By Sokka towerdog Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97815

Trading system progress 2 I've confirmed that upper/mid/lower bands map closely to support/resistance levels on the way down. I have not began to predict the bull market moves yet, because my concerns are with the immediate right now. This is still a system in progress, but here it goes. Suppose that due to your read of the tape or the say so of some guru or whatever, you concluded last December that the bull market has come to an end. There are actually patterns in this system that would help predict it, but let's not get into that. Say you then drew fib set by placing the 0 point at the upper red band where the resistance is, and the 1 point to the previous green flatline where the support should be. IF the midband blueline has a had a flat stretch (as was the case here) extend it. This is the picture we'd get I note the following: (1) The One point (extension of the green line) is your first primary support to bounce off of. (2) The blue line becomes the first new resistance and targets of bear market rallies. This has been a consistent and reliable signal. However, we don't always get a flatline stretch on the midband. (3) Sell once that resistance has been violated, and the 1.38, 1.62 extensions become your 2nd and 3rd supports to bounce off of. (4) Repeat the process: Redraw the next Fib set. at the top flatline set which now is confirmed with both redline and extension of blueline and set the 1 point to the flat greenline. (5) Note that the recent bottoms and bounces came again at 1.38 and 1.62 extensions and that we are now approaching the blueline flatline extension (not drawn since it is close enough to see). Which means that at least in the short term the rally should be coming to an end soon and if the bear market continues, which I think it will the next primary support is ~11300 on NQ.