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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (71584)	11/17/2022 11:25:15 AM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By Area51 Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78667

Didn't forget LUMN. I made a small add yesterday thinking their positive FCF w/ their new business model is a plus. However, the stock continues to make an all time low. Other adds this week: small add of BLD, MMM, DOC,TSN,O,PCH Small Sales SRE, AEO & BLDR (high cost shares for a small gain) ------------------------------------------------------ One of the highest levels of cash now at 23%

To: Paul Senior who wrote (71584)	11/17/2022 5:34:49 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78667

I like cio and bought a lil but getting stwd with a distribution of close to 10% I is preferable for me. ffxdf went up some as they announced they are looking at ipo-ing their airport they own which is by far their largest holding. I think so far the fed's impact has not been to really reduce inflation, instead it has been successful in slowing the tech economy, housing starts and increasing the cost of housing in general. going forward it will be interesting to see impact of the fed policy on new car sales. I am surprised that GM could have any confidence at all about their future free cash flow for 2023 let alone raising guidance! am i in the minority here?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (71584)	11/18/2022 11:33:23 AM
From: A1111	1 Recommendation Recommended By Area51 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78667

I just checked CRMT's financials and they are in a lot of mess. Really, the issue is their profitability. First is their interest expense. CRMT's debt is made of revolving credit facility and non-recourse note payables. Revolving credit facility has 4 tiers based on d/e. CRMT is currently on level two with d/e of 1.2 where their interest rate is 2.35%+ proceeding SOFT (5.5% in Q1 22). Their non-recourse debt is collateralised on an asset, auto loans in this instance, with an annual interest rate of 5.14%. CRMT recently on their Q2 22 filing changed its debt structure. In Q1 22, they had $188M revolving CF and 323M on non-recourse. In their recent Q2 filing, that changed to $302M on revolving CF and $250M non-recourse. CRMT took on more expensive debt, variable to interest rate hikes, to cut down their non-recourse debt. That tells me they are not confident in the future and worried they can't make payment. If d/e exceeds 1.5%, rates on RCF increase to 3%+SOFR which puts further strain on their earnings. SOFR rates are currently at 3.8%: squeezing their earnings even more. Other cost which stood out is credit losses. Credit losses % sales jumped from 24% to 25% from Q1 to Q2. Honestly, this is so unrealistic of the real case. In 2018, credit loss rate % sales was 27.7% on 2-2.5% rates. Rates are now at 4% and expect it to increase. I wouldn't be surprised if it reached 30% by the end of the year. Their revenue growth is a value trap. What's happening below sales are horrible.