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Technology Stocks : Aviation Group Inc. (AVGP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harry Abruzzese who wrote (2)	2/13/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 30

Harry..should have taken your advice with BA and BEAV...why does AVGP trade near its low?.Is the Boeing contract renewable and does the company rely heavily on Boeing?Are earnings affected by increased expenses? Thanx,SK

To: Harry Abruzzese who wrote (2)	2/14/1998 12:32:00 AM
From: ncs	Respond to of 30

Harry, I've been reviewing the information available on the internet and find it both troubling and quite positive. I'm concerned with the management, as the prospectus doesn't go into great detail on Lee Sanders' background nor any of the others. Additionally I'm skeptical on Richard Morgan, most notable from his association with Search. He appears to be the number's guy (he's a director and a consultant). I once knew a Dick Morgan in Dallas...I hope he's not the same guy, it seems though that the guy I knew would be past 50 by now and I think I read that this guy is forty. The Duke brokerage firm bring this to market is not particularily comfortable either. It's only their fifth offering and they are under investigation for one of their earlier ones. I have request hard copies of everything from the company and hopefully I'll get it next week. It's tough working the numbers off the internet, although there aren't that many in this case. With respect to the company, I have a problem with their business. It seems that they want to do a lot all at once and I don't see the management expertise there nor the capital. Although I suspect I would have said the same thing about WorldCom three or four years ago. It seems to me that they would be better of focusing on the painting end of things for the time being, although I suspect they want a steadier stream of work and revenues as painting is normally seasonable. However, for the next few years they ought to be able to overcome the seasonality of that end of the business with Boeing's work, here I'm guessing the new planes get painted all year round. From my travels I tend to agree with the comppany's philosophy to consolidate all the local maintenance and FBO providers, but the company doesn't appear to have the capital nor the stock value to do that. If they are successful there will be a lot of dilution of the shares in years to come, but that could be a good thing. I do like the Casper deal if I read it correctly, It seems that they bought the company for $1,167,000 plus stock at a issue price of $833,000 or roughly $2,000,000. A quick estimate of the value of the company looks to be $3,000,000, base on trailing 12 month earnings capped at 10%. Then they're going to turn around and sell the planes which have a AV of $1,638,000. Hence they just about get the company, less the charter business, for $400,000. Not a bad deal, if my numbers are correct. However, I'll have to review that once I get the info from the company. The painting facility they're having built in Lousiania looks like a pretty good deal for them also. I thought I saw some specifics on the Boeing deal but can't find them today. I think it worked out to something just shy of $1,000,000 per plane. If that's right their revenues should jump pretty impressively for the next couple of years. Unfortunately, I don't have enough infomation to figure their net. I have to assume that they have a huge amount of fixed costs so their margins will go up from here. I have a ton of questions, perhaps I'll send them a letter once I go through the hard copies. In any event I saw enough promise to try to get a small position. I put in for a block at $5.5 and another at $5.25 but didn't get filled. I think I'll leave them until I get more info, then move them up a bit. I doubt that this stock will get much attention in the near term, unless of course you highlight them in your newsletter. Talk to you later, Neil

To: Harry Abruzzese who wrote (2)	2/14/1998 9:31:00 PM
From: ncs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30

Harry, Good to talk to you earlier. I'm a little concerned about Asia and its effects on the airline sector, (although I'm much more concern about its effects on the high techs). Look at posts #4852 in the "SemiEquips - Buy When Blood is Running in the Street thread. And any of the other recent posts frm Jesse Beltz. From earlier posts I picked up that he is based in Hong Kong, thus probably knows of what he's talking about. It's not a pretty picture. PS. Sorry, I haven't mastered the art of linking yet. Talk to you later...Looking to pick up some AVGP Monday. Neil