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Strategies & Market Trends : Prosoft Software (POSO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike Medford who wrote (5)2/12/1998 6:42:00 PM
From: JERRY GACH  Respond to of 90
 
Subject:
POSO
Date:
Thu, 12 Feb 1998 17:08:06 EST
From:
GriffinMrX@aol.com
To:
tortaboy@ix.netcom.com
CC:
mtaraz@ix.netcom.com

Read your posts on SI regading POSO. Have tried to start thread on MF on AOL
but so far only one post other than me. Just wanted to jot down what I've
heard.

I've been calling IR regularly now last two weeks. Laura Singleton (IR) is
very nice and will spend a lot of time talking to you. She has given me some
decent information. It doesn't sound though like she gets too involved with
the financial statement detail like some other IRs do.

Anyway, here's what I want to add and maybe you want to post on SI. I don't
currently subscribe to SI as a poster but I did read your recent posts.
Here's what I've heard:

* Called Joe Vafi at Brean Murray and asked why he downgraded stock. He said
he still likes stock and co. fundamentals. But thought revenue ramp was going
to take longer than he originally planned. AT&T contract not ramping up well
at all. (Maybe IBM revenue will sponge up this shortfall). He revised
revenue for this 2nd quarter to be reported (week of 3/9) went from 4.2M to
1.5M! EPS went from -.17 to -.19.

* There is a board meeting tonight. I told Laura I would call here tomorrow
to see if she has any info to share.

* I have heard from another colleague of mine (who supposedly knows someone
who supposedly has close ties with POSO) that new CEO will come from IBM. You
can take this for what it's worth. This might pop the stock.

* It seems like there is an awful lot of formerly restricted stock that is up
for sale. Also like the larger volume recently although today wasn't a great
day.

* I have a modest 500 shares at 8 5/8 and may get out as soon as I break-even
because the quarterly report scares me as did the downgrades. A coincidence
that both downgrades occurred on same day. Talk about swapping notes. I do
believe though a CeO announcement (an outsider preferrably) would bode well
for stock price.

* Joe Vafi also said that he doesn't expect a profitable quarter til 1Q 99
instead of 3Q 98 (this 4/31 quarter) due to revenue ramp being extended.

Hope this helps you. I am interested in Don Dank would comment on any of the
above particularly on whether Joe Vafi is right regarding the AT&T contract
not ramping up at all. Laura (IR) said that Joe talks directly with Baird,
the interim CEO often so it sounds like he is getting his info straight to the
source.

On the other hand, I have thought that these market makers (Brean Murray and
Tucker Anthony) may have downgraded just to shake out some volume for their
larger clients who wanted more volume at lower prices. Today's action was
similar to that pre-downgrade so the downgrades haven't had much impact other
than creating some volume. I never put that past these small shops since one
can never tell their motivation. Joe also likes $21-25 but in 18 months as
opposed to 12 months. That would work for me but I'm not convinced this is
anything other than a good trading stock (as you suggested in your posts).

Any return info would be appreciated. I'll look for your posts on SI since it
doesn't look like you're on AOL.