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Strategies & Market Trends : Ted Warren's Investolator -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: WEagle who wrote (1152)11/28/2022 5:56:42 PM
From: investolator2000  Respond to of 1797
 
Hi WEagle,

As to your comment below, I have felt that way at times, though I have never gone that route, at least not yet.

My inclination is to clean house and rebuild the portfolio.



I wish I could give you some sounds words of wisdom, but I do know what to say. Whatever you decide, think about it carefully and then stick to your plan. Second guessing can cause one to lose dollars and sleep.

Best to you in whatever you do, and may you see greener days than red.

I2000



To: WEagle who wrote (1152)11/30/2022 8:01:20 PM
From: robert b furman1 Recommendation

Recommended By
investolator2000

  Respond to of 1797
 
Hi WEagle and all.

I met Ted Warren personally when he came to our college to address an investor club, of which myself and a very close student friend had started. Maybe four of us.

Back then Ted's newsletter had dozens of flat lining shares.

There were many that went broke.

Ted bought low and sold high, BUT not every stock made his 400 to 600%. Many went bust from my recollection.

It is still that way today with Venture Capital equity funds.

Goldman Sachs sells 700 million in a fund and buys 11 companies. Some are so valuable that an individual buyer is hard to find. So you sell shares in the buy to investors.

3 to 4 don't make it and bleed, and get quickly shut down. Another 3 are solid and make money - if not a lot of money, get sold off. That leaves the last 4 that are high gross, high margin and pay like a slot machine for a long time. Those are the winners and they hold onto them and make money, or get another firm, in the same field, and they want to buy them and roll up the sector and sell for big bucks.

Keep in mind that ted had a grade school education, AND A HUGE AMOUNT OF COMMON SENSE.

Did he have losers - you bet. BUt he has winners that he let run and di very well for himself and family.

He retired early and traveled. He didn't watch his stocks too closely, but to be truthful, that was when he had made millions and didn't have to (In my opinion).

Ted did not understand: cash flow, balance sheets, EBITDA.

So DO NOT think there are not losers and it always works out - IT DOES NOT BECOME THAT SIMPLE.

I knew Ted when I was 23 to 25. I'm 70 today.

I've had my largest investment go to zero. Clabir - CLG. It went from making tank ammunition to buying what now is Klondike Ice cream bars. Henry Clark ran it in the ground,while paying himself a lot of money. It happens and we learn.

So I've tasted the hard luck losers of Ted's investment style.

Let your winners run and be prepared for your losers to go bust.

Learn that debt free and cash in the bank with a product that has demand with high margins is what builds your retirement.

Diversify into that, if you find it, and then buy on dips, hold with confidence, and all you need is two or three of those in your life and you'll be more the comfortable.
I've always been over concentrated on just a few stocks. My wife and I make the effort to visit and meet management. It's part of why we take vacations. If the vibes are good we buy more and if the vibes are bad, we sell out.

It's just a gut thing we do. But management never meets stockholders that just want to visit and learn. They view stockholders as day traders wanting to make a quick buck. They view their valuable stakeholders/employees as the company, and need to be rewarded. It is rare when they value and treat stockholders as stakeholders. Some do and some don't.

With a retirement of management , that can change, so one needs to be regular on updating visits - I've found.

Were getting our way to a distribution top I think 2023, maybe 2024. As we wind to a top the small stocks will have appeal to the newbie investors. Sell out to them at breakeven if you do not have a good feel about the company. You'll have some losers and wash them out against the gains.
If you don't know it by now. we're in tax loss selling season. Count up you winners (hopefully capital gains) and look at your losers, (hopefully short term losses). The get netted out in the end of your taxform amd capital gains are a max of 20% tax and short term loses are a personal income rates.
Offset them and keep the good stocks that are making money or turnaround stories that are proving their business.

It's a balance of emotions.

Be fair both ways.

I hope that helps.

As Ted said it so well. you will be able to experience and have the finer things that this capitalist system offers.

View your investment portfolio holistically, and learn how to be critical of your decisions - it's all about learning to be profitable and not buy loser. Looking at what can go bad is more important than hope!

Bob