To: Maxwell who wrote (28448 ) 2/12/1998 5:51:00 PM From: Maverick Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1572754
RESEARCH ALERT - Merrill sees risk to chipmakers NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch analyst Thomas Kurlak said on Wednesday the 30 percent rally in the semiconductor SOX index since December 15 has increased the risk of holding semiconductor stocks. -- "With no recovery expected anytime soon and December industry sales falling at the fastest rate this decade, we believe an earnings recovery is not imminent," he said in a research note. -- Unit growth has also deteriorated rapidly, he said. -- Believes this reflects slowing end market growth since chip inventories were already substantially depleted in the 1996 correction, he said. -- Kurlak said the worldwide semiconductor market contracted five percent in December from November and slowed to a 4.4 percent annual growth rate from 16 percent last August. -- "We estimate that based on current order data, worldwide sales growth will slow further and will go negative in January compared to a year ago," he said. -- Kurlak said he remains convinced worldwide weakness in the chip market reflects softening end markets in addition to overcapacity. -- Year-over-year unit shipments of integrated circuits shows rapid deceleration from last summer, from over 35 percent in July to over 21 percent in November, he said. -- "End market softness is driving prices of technology products downward," he said. "This trend reveals a growing oversupply of products ranging from disk drives to cell phones to network interface cards to PCs." -- Sees Intel Corp locked in a losing battle with its customers who want lower prices. -- Sees high probability of third year of down dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chip prices. -- "In this stagnant environment we believe earnings will erode as costs grow due to the lag effect of new capacity additions still coming on," he said. ((Wall Street desk 212-859-1730))