To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (47583 ) 2/12/1998 9:07:00 AM From: Les White Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58324
Ken, how are you so sure Jazz has a limited future? Do you not think that the demand for 1+ gig drives is growing? And why is there such a pent up demand for this product if it is overpriced? You see the early adopters but no one beyond that. With ever increasing file and application sizes to move around and share I just don't see a diminishing need for this market segment in the future. The demand may be relatively small now but it is growing and IOM is in the leadership position now. I think the same barriers to competition will exist for Jazz as they do Zip. Same model, same result. You say Jazz is overpriced. I say the competition is underpriced. So why is it that the competition has to sell at such a large discount that they threaten their very existence? Answer; because they are competing with a large, profitable, leading competitor with a large installed base and powerful brand equity. SparQ would be selling higher if it could, but it can't. The value of compatibility and brand equity appears to be quite large. What's so bad about click's timing? When should a leader stake his claim? Too early or too late. Of course, perfect timing would be best, but good luck guessing it. You say Click has no cooperation? I suppose IOM just dreamed up the whole concept without consulting potential users and technology partners. And a statement by a company official at the Emerald Research Forum that MOT and TXN were walking shoulder to shoulder with IOM on click was pure BS. You could be right. Click is still born because of SMOD's super flash? I have not seen any prices posted. Did I miss the post? Does SMOD really have a click killer or is there room for both? We'll see. You are quite adamant that you have discovered the click killer. Let's not get too excited, you could be wrong for a lot of reasons that you are not aware of right now. You may just be one in a long line of predictors of IOM product failures. Click is not figured into any FY98 revenue models that I am aware of yet it's production is budgeted. IOM's stock price has been discounted to reflect all known risks. We've already paid for the big ad campaign and the risks associated with click at $8/share and a .50 EPS forecast. If they don't produce we could go back to 8, if they do I think we'll be back to 16 again. From 9.5 it looks like a lot more upside than down side to me. And where do you get this slowing zip demand crap? Demand grew in 97. The growth rate decreased. Big difference. At current volumes a lower growth rate still equates to significant volume increases. Do you think that IOM's market dominance and brand equity in Europe and Asia are insignificant? There is no one else there to dominate. We're all alone in a large and growing market. How did that happen? I state a bull case so that makes me a dreamer? And all those big players who gobbled up panicking sellers at 8 are dreaming too? Their research departments did an overnight analysis of the prospects for IOM's future and suddenly concluded that they should commit large amounts of money to a falling star? Give me a break. I'm long with my opinion, why are you long? Les