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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hoa Hao who wrote (773072)	12/1/2022 12:59:41 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 793781

“There is a non-trivial chance that nuclear weapons will be used” That’s the rhetoric Mearsheimer offers - rather than to say “likely”. Sounds to me that he’s estimating the odds at somewhere under 50%. Thanks. It’s not easy to find a recent - in this case, current - John M video. He’s careful, thoughtful - and yes, realistic. Imo, if someone were to watch only one single video about Ukraine - this one could be a good choice.

To: Hoa Hao who wrote (773072)	12/1/2022 3:15:03 PM
From: skinowski	2 Recommendations Recommended By Hoa Hao Jacob Snyder Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793781

Mearsheimer doesn’t claim that he knows all the answers. One thing he said about the Ukraine war that was intriguing is that IF the Russians use nukes at any point, the retaliation from the West would be with conventional weapons. Not sure he’s right. Also, it’s a little surprising that his views on the U.S.- China issues sound like he agrees that we need to go to great lengths not to allow China to surpass us economically and militarily. How can this be done? A war? But - China is just as much a nuclear power as Russia is. There is also a concern (which he does not discuss) that in case (God forbid) we have a full nuclear exchange with Russia - no one wants to see China survive intact and become the only major global power. Otoh, if China becomes involved in a Russia - USA fight - it won’t be fighting on our side. Becomes bigly complicated. Feels wrong even just to talk about these things theoretically…. and yet, here we are.