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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (2081)	2/12/1998 10:34:00 AM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

You get the cigar and the fuzzy doggie! As in Indonesiza is FUBAR'd Between times I have another post from "the other professor" aka Jess Beltz of Hong Kong. Posted on SI. For Private Use Only. He says:"I personally put virtually no stock in Indonesia's ability to peg the Rupiah to the dollar, regardless of what the currency did today on the news. The only place that's been able to do it is Hong Kong, simply because the HKMA has so much in foreign reserves that it could (we believe) buy every single HK dollar in existence and put the entire territory on US currency. Do you think Indonesia can do that? I don't think so. If your economy is going to hell there's simply no way (short of something like the situation in HK) to save the value of your currency. They all tried the usual bag of Central Bank gimmicks in SE Asia, and they all failed. And, let me repeat, Indonesia's economy IS going to hell fast. There was a lengthy story tonight about Suarto's government bringing out the military in a large display of force to try and suppress the growing amount of civil unrest. People, I see no way Indonesia can now avoid total collapse. As I mentioned earlier, I saw a report on ABN that 90% of the 200 largest Indonesian firms WILL need renegotiation of their debt, some involving total debt forgiveness. That's bankruptcy, pure and simple. There's massive and growing unemployment, and the country is desperately trying to stave off hyper inflation, and it's all coming down sooner rather than later. What this means for semis, I'm not sure, but there WILL be more major market reversals as this unfolds.