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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (74947)	12/19/2022 2:41:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 97009

The argument for XLE is that so long as oil sticks above mid 70s, then it is a great value b/c they pay good dividends, stock buybacks, etc. But below 70s they are in trouble. In general, XLE/XOP should be considered a play on far out futures contracts. You can sort of play them off of the spread between the 1 and 5 year out (which makes fundamental sense). My "fair value" assessment is based on this dynamic. If the long end spread is not falling and XLE/XOP is falling hard, then likely people are locking in profits against their losses and will jump back in a month.