Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (89412)	12/19/2022 5:41:59 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95609

Why question MU's fundamentals when your bias has already ruled it out on a technical basis? In fact you have ruled all the stocks in the group out by your bias. It's as good as any group to trade. The old maxim "Buy when there is blood in the streets!" still means something to me. That said the DJIA fell again today and the VIX barely moved. And the VIX went down. What the heck? This bear market is not over. But still there are going to be wonderful trading opportunities. Eventually the market will bottom and even bad buys made during this bear market will end up yielding profits for investors in this sector. These companies remain largely profitable with pristine balance sheets. When we eventually get a spike in the volatility indexes followed by a 90% upside day in which the Nasdaq fully participates everyone needs to be buying all the shares they can get. JMHO, RtS

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (89412)	12/19/2022 6:33:08 PM
From: Sam	2 Recommendations Recommended By Return to Sender Sun Tzu Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95609

I don't know. I haven't always been right about Micron but I've generally been reasonably sure about what might happen (even though my "certainty" was at times later dashed, lol!). This time, I can't even convince myself that I have a clue. Currently it isn't even in the top three of my holdings--I sold a fair bit last week and have been a seller since early in the summer. At some point it might be a strong buy again, but I fear all the cash from various countries to build fab capacity might just lead to another over-building like what happened in the first decade of the 21st century. There are reasons why it could do so and reasons why it might not. The sector is much larger than ever and new applications are coming online all the time. There will be still more enormous sources of demand over the next decade or more and a great deal of new capacity will be required. But timing the new capacity and the new demand could be tricky. W/r/t Micron specifically, what it has in its favor is that state-of-the-art DRAM in particular is extremely difficult to make. It is as much art as it is science. Even Samsung has had difficulty at the latest nodes. But I don't think that will help it in the short term. Clearly the only new vendor in DRAM will be the Chinese and for now they are blocked from even trying to learn how to produce DRAM at lower than 18nm nodes. At least, officially. They have never shown any compunction about violating patents and stealing employees and trade secrets, so I have no doubt that if they can procure purloined equipment, they will do so. But they would also have to know how to actually use the equipment and get additional tools for actual production, so that will be very difficult for them to do. I've bought more JKS recently in part because their CEO just bought a couple of million shares on the open market and it feels to me like it is ready to make a big move. So that is my biggest position. And I have a position in Tower as a play on Intel's takeover. But I've owned that since it was in the teens years ago, recently bought some more around 43-44 thinking that Intel will find a way to make the takeover happen. If it doesn't happen, I will be unhappy. How about you? What are your thoughts at Micron and the semis generally? Any favorites?