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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (75174)	12/24/2022 12:43:50 PM
From: ajtj99	8 Recommendations Recommended By Hayduke Jacob Snyder Lou Weed roto skier31 and 3 more members Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99088

The move up in heath care and drug stocks also coincides with the first baby boomer retirements. Just saying, correlation does not equal causation. You could also pin the boom in health care and drug stocks to the soaring obesity epidemic. I don't think it's so easy as to pin it on a single factor. Also, FWIW, the drug and health care stocks nearly doubled off the 2001 lows to the 2007 highs, so they were basically market performing into the 2008 lows. Furthermore, if the gains were all due to Obamacare, why didn't they drop from nearly 80 to 25 when it was nearly repealed in 2015? They only dropped around 20%. Finally, looking at the move up from the 2008 lows, the sector has been basically market performing, similar to the SPX move up from the 666 2009 lows to the 4814 2021 highs. It's our nature to try to come with fast conclusions when analyzing things. It's helped us survive for eons (Example - Roar = Tiger = Danger! Today, Roar=Noise; could be TV, radio, internet, PA, toy, movie, phone, Ventriloquist, or actual Tiger, amongst other things). However, fast conclusions are more often than not an impediment to successfully navigating our modern, data-dependent age.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (75174)	12/24/2022 1:26:51 PM
From: bustersmith	Respond to of 99088

I'm holding out for the " Two Weeks Away Plan" youtube.com

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (75174)	12/26/2022 3:49:45 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 skier31 Respond to of 99088

To get back to the markets. I listened to a lot of rooms this weekend and most were nothing new. However one good point I keyed in on was the outperformance of the defensive sectors, especially the ones being hyped for growth potential that when you really think about it, makes no sense at all (as I've been saying all year). DE, CAT, healthcare, UTEs etc. While healthcare might do okay with the aging and obese population mix growing, it doesn't stack up to the high valuations now being awarded. DE, CAT etc like I've been saying are not going to see high sales in a housing slow down and farmers paying through the nose for fertilizer. Utilities are being mandated to build out solar, wind power and the infrastructure to connect to the grid from remote locations where this stuff is being put in vs a central location for a conventional gas burning power plant. The reason given for their better than peers results is the funds that are mandated to be fully or near fully invested in equities, and many in S&P 500 or midcaps indexed companies. Even if you're bearish, you have to buy something. You see rates climbing and know the market is going to tank as a recession looms, you're not going to buy high beta, high PE growth. When times were good, no one was going to get fired for owning MSFT,AAPL etc but now, not so much. If you have to own something, better defensive, low beta and maybe get some dividends. They did think eventually though these too are going to collapse as no new buyers show up and/or rotation moves money out. As for my short term view, I don't know why but I just feel like we might bounce. There isn't much news this week and it's going to be a ghost town as far as volume. Should be easy to goose it up for higher short entries when everyone comes back. (Never short a dull market???)