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To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (7507)	2/12/1998 12:45:00 PM
From: Bald Eagle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116984

<<but I'm betting that there is much more downside to the DOW than upside.>> That depends upon what time frame you are looking at. In the very long term, there is going to be much more upside than downside. In the relatively short term, you might be right.

To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (7507)	2/14/1998 7:53:00 AM
From: Dwight Taylor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116984

<<Who knows where we will go? >> The Dow will go south. It is at ridiculous levels. It is at a level 2000 points above irrational exuberance. Stocks are bought on a percption of value and foregoing any consideration of a dividend yield. The valuation of all stocks has historically been about 48% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Product). In other words, the value of all companies on listed exchanges has been about 1/2 of 1 year's economic output of the country. Today stocks are priced at 118% of GDP (Thanks to USA Today for the stats). The last time we had a BIG Crash ('29) stocks were priced at 77% of GDP and dropped to 33% of GDP. In 1987 stocks were priced at 64% of GDP and fell into the 40's. In 1929 at the peak before the Crash the Dow was at 77% of GDP, today we are at 125%.